Re: NDC-Global warming stuff
- From: "Ray" <rayblee@xxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: 15 Nov 2005 09:44:53 -0800
Bradish wrote:
> "Climate change could spread plague: scientists
> OSLO (Reuters) - Warmer, wetter weather brought on by global warming could
> increase outbreaks of the plague, which has killed millions down the ages
> and wiped out one third of Europe's population in the 14th century,
> academics said.
>
> "The link is very important and it is also important to link it back to the
> Black Death in the 1300s because there were the kind of weather conditions
> then -- warmer and wetter -- that we predict for the future," Stenseth
> said."
>
>
>
> So....it turns out there was warmer and wetter weather back 700 years ago.
In Europe, yes.
> Hey, wait a minute...how much fossil fuel burning was going on then?
Essentially none.
> I am for anything to clean up the earth, but this info about the climate 700
> years ago tells me that global warming may not be from fossil fuels, but
> from normal cyclical climate changes.
This info "tells" you nothing of the kind, Bradish -- this is instead
what you are telling yourself based on far too little information.
You need to look at the bigger picture, Bradish: literally, in terms of
what the earth's climate was like 700 years ago; and intellectually, in
terms of how cyclical climate changes behave and how current global
warming trends diverge from said behavior, as well as the atmospheric
physics that predicts the observed divergence from natural cyclical
behavior.
Here's the literal big picture re- climate in the 1300s: while the
climate was warmer in Europe back then, the average temperature in the
northern hemisphere was cooler. Check out this graph published by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC - the international
association comprised of hundreds of climate scientists from around the
globe, whose mission is assess what is known about climate change):
http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/fig2-20.htm
Note too that the observed sharp increase in average temperture since
the dawn of the fossil fuel era does not follow the much-slower trend
average temperture trend of the pre-fossil fuel era -- natural cyclical
climate changes follow much smoother trends and do not behave like
that.
Then there's the physics: standard atmospheric physics predicts the
observed divergence from natural cyclical behavior. According to
atmospheric physics components of fossil fuel exhaust (such as CO2) are
"greenhouse gases" -- in the atmosphere they trap heat that otherwise
would be lost to space and re-radiate it back to earth. Moreover, the
level global warming predicted by the physics based on how much fossil
fuel-created greenhouse gases that are already in the atmosphere is in
complete agreement with what is observed.
These are major reasons why the IPCC has concluded (2001):
1. An increasing body of observations gives a collective picture of a
warming world and other changes in the climate system
2. Emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols due to human activities
continue to alter the atmosphere in ways that are expected to affect
the climate
3. Confidence in the ability of models to project future climate has
increased
4. There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed
over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities
5. Human influences will continue to change atmospheric composition
throughout the 21st century
Similarly, here's the National Academy of Sciences' assessement (2001):
"The [global warming] changes observed over the last several decades
are likely mostly due to human activities."
And here's the current president of the National Academy of Sciences:
"Nearly all climate scientists today believe that much of Earth's
current warming has been caused by increases in the amount of
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, mostly from the burning of fossil
fuels."
- Ralph J. Cicerone, President of the National Academy of Sciences,
U.S. Senate testimony, July 21, 2005
HTH,
Ray
> ************************************************
>
> FULL TEXT___
>
> OSLO (Reuters) - Warmer, wetter weather brought on by global warming could
> increase outbreaks of the plague, which has killed millions down the ages
> and wiped out one third of Europe's population in the 14th century,
> academics said.
>
> Migratory birds spreading avian flu from Asia today could also carry the
> plague bacteria westward from their source in Central Asia, Nils Stenseth,
> head of a three-day conference on the plague and how it spreads, told
> Reuters on Monday.
>
> "Wetter, warmer weather conditions mean there are likely to be more of the
> bacteria around than normal and the chance of it spreading to humans is
> higher," he said.
>
> The European Union-funded group has just finished analyzing Soviet-era data
> from Kazakhstan which show a link between warmer weather and outbreaks of
> the plague.
>
> This analysis was important as it had not previously been clear whether
> warmer conditions encouraged the bacteria, fleas and rats to grow or killed
> them off, Stenseth said. Plague bacteria are often carried by fleas on rats.
>
> "But if it becomes too hot it would kill off the fleas and rodents," he
> said.
>
> Many scientists say a build-up of heat-trapping gases from burning fossil
> fuels is pushing up temperatures around the world and changing Earth's
> climate.
>
> KILLER BACTERIA
>
> The plague -- caused by the virulent, aggressive and mutating Yersinia
> Pestis bacteria -- periodically breaks out in Kazakhstan and other Central
> Asian countries and has been carried around the globe by fleas on the back
> of rats, birds and in clothing for centuries, Stenseth said.
>
> "If you treat it with antibiotics in a few days it should be all right, but
> if you leave it any longer there is a 60 percent chance of death."
>
> In the 14th century the plague killed around 34 million people and some
> academics believe it reappeared every generation, including the Great Plague
> of London in 1665-66.
>
> "The link is very important and it is also important to link it back to the
> Black Death in the 1300s because there were the kind of weather conditions
> then -- warmer and wetter -- that we predict for the future," Stenseth said.
>
> "After 1855, when it (plague) reappeared again, there were once again
> similar weather conditions."
>
> Scientists are still unsure why the plague originates in Central Asia. It
> has spread throughout the world, including recently to east Africa, and this
> is due at least partly to birds.
>
> "Many, many bird species are spreading bacteria from one place to another,
> from one rodent to another, by carrying fleas," Stenseth said.
>
> "That birds spread the bacteria is not in question but how important that is
> in the big picture is not yet clear."
>
> Unlike the bird flu virus, which infects and kills domestic birds,
> plague-carrying fleas do not harm the birds that carry them.
.
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