Re: (NBC) ipod or mp3 player?

"gumboman" <dontemailme@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
Whoa - the economic purpose of a stock market is not to provide
legalized gambling so that Americans can sit behind their computer
screens and speculate on the rise and fall of individual companies so
as to enrich themselves while providing no economic output. The
purpose of a stock market is to provide both a means of capital
formation and a market for liquidity for those seeking to buy or sell
stocks.

Hmmm.... so I guess I better hurry up, before even more punishing tax laws
get passed?

Dasm! In a Balloonish moment of clarity I just might have to vote
RepuGlikan!

But alas, my days of decadence are about over anyway. I'm considering a job
at an office! One where people actually dress up most days (dress down
Fridays). I hope their product is as good as they say it is, that it
actually works. Heck, sure would be great if it worked as well as an one of
them Apple computers!

If I take this job I'll make enough that I won't have to sit behind my
computer screen and speculate on the rise and fall of companies while adding
nothing to society. Still, I waffle....

I will say this much for being a non-producer, it's HELLA FUN!


Anything else Americans think is nonsense although it says a lot about
the state of American business today if yours is the predominant
attitude.

You sure read a lot into stuff! Now I'm speaking for the predominant
American attitude? My point (which I thought was obvious) was that "buy &
hold" is a terrible strategy for technology stocks. (And tech was what we
were discussing). Tech changes too fast and is too dependent on
risk-factors beyond anyone's control.

It ain't like buying into a cereal or shampoo stock.

It ain't some stodgy utility.

It's a gamble that's often fast & furious.

If you buy and hold - unless you are very very lucky - you have a real good
chance of it ending up buy & fold. Because for every Intel, Cisco,
Microsoft, or Apple, there are 10 Brocades.

http://tinyurl.com/2sbqay

So I tend to look at questions like "what company do you wish you had bought
and held 25 years ago?" as irrelevant. It's like asking which supermodel
I'd like to have slept with. Fun daydream, but not relevant to today.

Much better to maintain on a series of happy, realistic, short-term
relationships. Read up on a company, determine an entry point, build a
position on the dips, then get the fucking hell out of it with a profit. Go
and do it again at some other company down the street. Don't be greedy.
Take a profit and leave before the sherrif comes to your game.

I sure hope this ain't made illegal anytime soon, LOL!

Is it "wrong" that Americans can sit behind a computer, contribute nothing
to society and make money? I don't know. Hell, I'm just a simple feller
used to drive a chicken truck.


But I don't really understand your point, anyway? Did somebody make the
claim that Apple enjoyed more market share than Win/tel? I don't remember
anyone saying that.
You made the claim Apple was making inroads into Wintel market share.
If they are doing so it is in miniscule amounts.

Define miniscule. Apple will never have 50% of the corporate PC market.
They'll never have 25%. They may never even have 20%. But they don't need
that right now. All they need right now is to keep gorwing. I don't even
know Apple's current market share in corporate America. I just know that
it's growing, and that this summer they beat the street on COMPUTER sales.


We'll see if today is any different. Lots of people don't think it
will. You obviously disagree.

Well, lots of people besides me think that it will. Maybe yes maybe no, I
don't know. Nor do I care beyond what I might be able to gain from it
personally.


And let's remember, Scully didn't make a lot of the important
decisions, he was brought in after the damage was done.

True on his timing, but he was still a useless POS.


I find the historical aspects interesting sure, and I think those who
make the argument that Apple's closeness is a detriment to that
company are absolutely correct. I believe you challenged someone who
commented on that closeness and I was trying to provide a different
perspective.

When I read Laurie's post I didn't pay much attention to the word
"proprietary." I paid more attention to the word "detest." So it hadn't
really sunk in yet, that some people feel so strongly about the *way* Apple
does business. I was surprised to hear this sentiment - that someone has
such a strong dislike for Apple, the company, they would use the word
despise. I usually hear it the other way around (strong love for Apple,
strong hate for Win/Tel).

You & Laurie and others with technical skills are far more knowledgeable
than the average consumer. If you have good reason to despise (Laurie's
word not yours) Apple, that's OK. But from my vantage point it doesn't seem
like an emotion shared by many people. It may be that I interface with
business types and you guys interface with engineers.


I love my Ipod. We've got four of them in the house. They get used all
the time. I've got this little thing that goes on my forearm that I
use when I'm at the gym and I've even found a way to hook it up to
myself when I'm on the driving range practicing. Those itty bitty
earplugs are a pain but there are plenty of choices available to
substitute. You should get you one. :)

The one I bought off my kid (so he could add his own money and buy a new
improved one) is two years old. I don't even know where it is anymore. So
I'm prolly gonna buy myself one for Christmas. I have an old Sony Discman
that works fine. I don't go to the gym. I do go out walking around the
track in my neighborhood. I haven't needed to go smaller yet. But I envy
you guys with that "shuffle" feature. The recent thread about "What songs
come up on Shuffle?" made me want an iPod.


OK Balloon (sorry - couldn't resist). Let's look at the numbers. :)

Glad I could make your day! However, NO, let's NOT.

I don't care what AAPL's percentage of the worldwide computer market is.
All I care about from AAPL is if I can make money from their stock. I sold
half my shares in mid summer, the other half a few weeks ago. Now I'm
watching it from the sidelines. If the market tanks - or if some analyst
publishes a hellasiously negative report on about aapl, I just might pick
some up again. If it gets cheap. Maybe not though. Right now it's too
expensive.

But yea, I do think there's more money to be made in this stock. And I
think it will be soon. If - and admittedly this is a big if - it gets cheap
between now & Halloween I might buy some with the idea of selling it in
Q1/06. Beyond that, I don't care what Apple's share of the worldwide
computer market is. (But I do believe that it's growing).


And what drove this growth? They switched to Intel chips and by
extension made themselves more compatible with Windows. That's what I
said (or tried to say anyway). I didn't need the newspaper to tell me
that.

Me either. But what does it matter? Who cares *why* their computer
business is growing? For my intents & purposes there's no right or wrong,
there's only win or lose.


But as a point of comparison they sold 1.76 million computers
for that quarter (which the paper only states as 'Macs') How does this
compare with all computers sold in that quarter for all companies?

I have outlined my lack of concern for this question, above.


Would you think it matters as to what season we look at for Apple's
revenue/profit numbers?

Which is why I showed you numbers from Q2.

If AAPL experiences continued growth in computer sales in Q3, well hey...
you know they'll sell a boatload of iMACS in Q4. Add in the iPods & iPhones
and it could be a nice stock to buy in Sept/Oct and sell in Jan/Feb. Of
course it would have to get cheap for a few days. I think there's a good
chance of that happening. The market is crazy ya know.


Or, put another way, would you expect the mix
of revenue/profits to be different during the Xmas season?

Addressed above.


But, the bottom line, is they increased both sales and profits by
doing what many people said they should do long, long ago, which is
moving closer to Windows.

So what? So you guys were right all along? No offense, but I don't care.


There's a whole generation of kids exiting collitch that don't care what
Steve Jobs did in 1982. They weren't even born back then. What do we
know
about these kids? We know they love their iPods and their iMACs (and to a
much lesser extent, their iPhones). We know they will be taking their
first
jobs soon. We know some of them will ask if their computer can be Apple.

And the vast majority will be told sure, if you pay for it and agree
to not ask for company tech support. Otherwise, they will be told no.

That may be true. But some industries will say "sure," we use MACs here, we
love them." And if a candidate is good enough, the company will pay for
their MAC, support their MAC, and do it with a smile.


They won't be given Macs in large numbers anytime soon. I can give you
two reasons:

1. They are too expensive

Not as expensive as they were, getting less expensive.


2. If you need to run Windows on them in order to run company apps
then why pay Apple a premium for a Windows machine?

No one has said that MACs will be selling in "large" numbers. What I said
was, "they're making inroads." That's all they need to do right now. Down
the road they will need to do more. But down the road they might deliver
several new products that make doing more, easier. Time will tell.

I buy and sell. I don't buy & hold. That means I have less a chance of
waking up one day with a Brocade like situation. Because with tech - if you
buy and hold you will eventually hit a Brocade. Even when holding the BEST
companies. Maybe it won't be as extreme as Brocade, but the day will come
when your stock crashes.

Sure, you could get lucky and buy a tech stock that never goes down. But
chances are slim. It is far more possible that you will miss your
opportunities to take your profits and run - so you can buy some other -
faster rising - tech stock and start the process over. And it is also very
possible that you will wake up one day to find your beloved tech stock in
the crapper. So to me, the question of "what stock you wish you held for 30
years" is answered: NONE.


If there has been any change it's because Apple capitulated and
allowed Windows to be run on their machines; hence, we have a Windows
computer. it's as simple as that.

That doesn't matter to me.

This is only anecdotal but when I travel to seminars, conventions,
etc. I haven't seen any appreciable difference. There was always a
certain number of MAC laptops. As for the college kids, the ones down
here that I am associated with want no part of Apple. My kids and
their friends know they can get anything from me at cost and although
I always ask, not a single one wants an Apple. So maybe the difference
is regional. In fact, most of those who come around here, don't even
want to use their own, they want to use mine. At one company I do a
lot of work for I took mine to let someone use in an emergency and
I've subsequently sold one to every executive in the company, as well
as all new laptops in the company for regular people being the same.
Again, this is just anecdotal and I may actually take the time to look
for figures on how many laptops are now being built locally and
delivered. I would probably take a small wager that the number of
laptops being delivered by this method today is in excess of the
number of Mac laptops sold.

You could be right. Independent PC guys do a big business where I live,
too. That doesn't change the fact that Apple is selling more computers than
ever before.


It was computers, (not iPods or iPhones) that made aapl stock rise this
summer, after having already doubled in 9 months. Computer sales and new
products is what will drive Apple revenues, going forward. If I'm right,
the company will thrive. If I'm wrong the company will falter. Either
way,
I have no dog in this fight (apologies to ASPCA). I'm just saying what I
know to be true.

I'm not sure why you would expect Ipod sales to drive profits in the
seasons outside of Xmas.

Hmm? We've lost something in translation here. I posted a link about their
computer sales, not their iPod sales. Here's a paragraph from the article
that I linked:

"The company sold a record 1.76 million Macintosh computers during the
quarter, up 33 percent from the year-ago period, far outpacing the
industry's growth rate. Mac sales and services accounted for more than 60
percent of the quarter's revenue, the company said."

MAC accounted for 60% of their total quarterly revenue.

I don't expect iPod sales to drive the *major* portion of Apple's revenue
during the other 3 quarters. I don't believe I ever indicated anything of
the sort. Long-term, iPod will drive ever smaller portions of the total, as
other products are delivered. But for the short-term foreseeable future,
yes, iPod is expected to carry its share. And for this upcoming holiday
season iPod sales will be huge. They just announced their new iPODS last
week. Check out the movie:

http://tinyurl.com/3ywyer


If Apple thrives going forward it will be because they are now Wintel
Lite. They could have done that long, long ago.

Better late than never?


That's Job's basic instinct and has been from the beginning.

He can be a stubborn fuker. Typical engineer. (Emoticon alert!).


I were in the market for an iPod I would look, instead, at some of the new
"smart" phones from Verizon.
That run on Windows Mobile :)

True dat. I wish I was with Verizon. I'm stuck w/AT&T for legacy reasons.
Looking forward to the day my contract ends.


Mine does. I even make my own ringtones and don't have to pay the
artist or Verizon jack-***. :)

Is Radio Nowhere your ringtone yet?


Apple's long-term growth depends more on their computer sales than either
iPod or iPhone sales. And of course, whatever new products they have in
the
pipeline.

If this is what you think then they are in trouble. The computer
commodity business is even more cutthroat than the cell phone
business.

But you don't know what products are in their pipeline.

Maybe they'll come out with a new line of proprietary servers!


In order to make the gains you seem to think they are going to
make they are going to have to reduce their prices such that Gates
will make more selling Job's users a single piece of software than
Jobs will make on the computer itself. Priceless. :)

It's a funny, ironic story, but it doesn't effect how I view Apple, or how
most people think of the company. Most people love them fanatically! Me?
I view them as a company that allows me to sit behind my computer screen and
speculate on their rise and fall, so to as enrich myself, all the while
providing no economic output.

And in my boxers no less!

=======================================
Better bring your own redemption when you come
To the barricades of heaven, where I'm from
Jackson Browne


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