Re: On those predictions....
- From: Mark N <menusbaum@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Wed, 02 Nov 2005 07:22:34 -0800
T3 wrote:
On another note, I had a chance to review our collective predictions for MGP this year, some good, some "not" so good and some waaay out there! Max who? Geeberwho? We'll see next week....
Those are hardly the worst of them, although you and Pablo did much better on Max than I did. At least I wasn't like Champ, picking him for the championship!
What everyone got wrong was Melandri, of course. Beyond those guys I seem to have done okay, not as hot on Tamada and Bayliss as you guys, more realistic on Hayden, about right on Edwards. Who we're both spot-on with at the moment are Capirossi in 7th and Barros in 8th, and I had Checa in 9th as well. And we both missed the mark on Kawasaki. Anyway, a few of the gems I offered back in March:
On Gibernau: "If he's really a champion, this is the year, but I don't think he is. And my gut feeling is that his luck, over the years clearly the best in all of racing, may start to run out on him..."
On Hayden: "I think he'll get closer over the course of this year, perhaps very close, almost certainly winning his first race, on the box with some regularity, almost always in the top five."
On Edwards: "If he can use stuff built for Rossi to good effect, there should be little to stop him - other than being #2 on the #2 bike and changing teams once again, that is. If he's in the fight from the start it will be one he stays in, but if he starts slowly it will be tougher to get the mojo working. The first two weekends of the year, back-to-back at Jerez and Estoril, may tell the story for Colin, just as they seem to have done last year. [Finished 9th and 6th, followed by 8th in China] He could go winless again with a few podiums, or he could really scare some folks at the top, and I'm not at all sure which it will be."
On Tamada: "I think he'll still show flashes regularly, but not enough to win a race, and he'll show some frustration before it's over. And he could finish well below this [6th], if he doesn't get that HRC support, if he's down the line at Michelin, if he's really not quite for real."
On Capirossi: "The bike looks better, the tires are better and will be best a few times this year, so Loris and Ducati will win again. But don't look for anything like a championship challenge, that's just too much to hope for when all three will have it wrong at times. Something along the lines of 2003 or just a bit more is about the most one can reasonably expect, but at least it won't be 2004 all over again."
On Checa: "If Bridgestone has really closed the overall gap on Michelin he could have a big year, which for him would be occasional podium visits and just maybe his first win since '98. But I'm not that optimistic, and I don't see hard results being much better than last year for him."
On Bayliss: "I see him pushing too hard again, more crashing, and a good chance he'll end up hurt. Or maybe he'll back off like Colin did, finally realizing it's just not worth it. In any case, I'm just not optimistic, and next year we may see a passing of the Aussie torch, this slot possibly going to Vermuelen..."
On Roberts: "And if the breaks fall his way somewhere, he'll put the thing back on the box for the first time since '02. But if the bike doesn't improve, look for him to shut down a bit - criticize him for it or not, he won't kill himself fighting for 15th..."
On Xaus: "I don't see this Euro-darling getting much done this year... Xaus will crash a lot, as always, and I don't even see him really throwing up big surprises - one only gets so many chances the likes of Mugello and Losail last year. That the most notable thing he's accomplished in winter testing so far is developing a very sore ass sounds about par for the year..."
On Hopkins: "It's possible that I underrate him here [picked in 14th, where he is today], but he's not done enough for me to justify more at this point."
On Elias: "He'll be a couple seconds off the pace a lot, will probably crash a lot, and some people will get really excited because he manages to take a 8th at Catalunya or something along those lines." [Okay, so it was 6th at Istanbul]
On the stories of the year:
"At the front, is Honda righted enough to give Rossi a real challenge? Are the bikes better, are the riders good enough, are their sponsors and support strategy messing up the works?"
"Bridgestones that will surpass the Michelins some of the time, equal them more often, and fall short less often. How much of each of these will tell a big story."
"It's now time for the "SB guys" to really show what they can do, Hayden and Hopkins having enough experience, Edwards in a reasonably good position at last, Bayliss having another chance. With the new guys this year grads of the old school (250 Meds), Hodgson and Kurtis gone and Shakey on the edge, it's critical to stake out ground or run the risk of the whole thing sliding back toward the bad old JIS days."
"Is MotoGP at a turning point, the budget demands too much for across-the-board participation by the bigger manufacturers? No new blood (beyond KTM motors in one machine), Aprilia gone, Roberts and D'Antin teetering - doesn't entirely look great at the moment. We probably need to see a great championship fight, Ducati very close to the front, reasonably competitive Suzukis and Kawasakis, and Bridgestone as a fully-viable tire alternative to keep the momentum going. Too much to ask?"
Gems, guys, these are gems I've been handing you, and free of charge! Well, you do have to read the shit...
.
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