Re: The Skies over Mordor Are a Little Less Dark Today

You don't have to imagine it, that's been the pattern for 200 years. A
fellow named Marx did a rather good analysis of its mechanics (his
analysis was excelent, his proposed cure much less satisfactory)

Sure you could. But, well, this is why you should shut your mouth.

Throughout history, there have been mostly metallic standards that put
LIMITS on the ability of banks to indebt the world.

The debt economy is not ending, it is morphing.  The current economic
crisis is about managing a transition that is simple in principle even if
the details are fiendishly complex: much (but not all) private debt
(largely because it is unsustainable) will become public debt.  

LOL...well, that's great. There does not EXIST sufficient private
PRODUCTION to pay the fucking interest on this debt. It cannot be
SERVICED.

Eventually, as a mathematical CERTAINTY, a debt-based monetary system
exponentiates to a level where it cannot be SERVICED by a real
economy. This is the difference between economics and reality,
Gerald.

The banking system (private and a good chunk of the public too) in many
countries is bankrupt (although this cannot be admitted) and will get
massive infusions of capital to rebuild itself (largely, but not
exclusively, funded by government on the backs of taxpayers,
intermediated by the printing press in the shorter term). The more
aggressive bankers have been emboldened, not chastened, by this crisis,
and are using the money from the public trough to go on an M&A binge
consolidating into fewer but even more powerful players.

Gosh, just...how foolish. There is no capital. The monetary overhead
is eating the real economy. This is liquidity trap, deflationary
collapse vortex that is now spinning. The only way out is to
REPUDIATE debt. The problem with this is that DEBT is what MONEY is.
So, if we repudiate debt, we repudiate MONEY, which leads to a vicious
circle. The debts cannot be serviced in the aggregate by the private
sector, therefore, they cannot be serviced as public debts either
because there IS no public, there is only a collection of people who
lack adequate income to service the debts they already HAVE.

There are opportunities in this chaos - all risky - and those who have
risk capital to invest (with a very heavy emphasis on the word "risk")
may still make money.  The emphasis for most, however, should be on
capital preservation.

Regards,

Very little risk. You buy leap put options and sit. This is like
trading during a bull run except in reverse. You can fall into a hole
and make money right now. I am not a particularly good trader, but
the numbers I gave you were the truth. I can spot the trend and I
have played it; sell and hold.

JFC, Gerald, I told you BSC and LEH were both going tits up. I called
that *** MONTHS before it occurred. All anyone had to do was buy far
OTM puts on either of those in any reasonable amount and they'd be
rich as ***.

Trav
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