Re: The First Rule of Panic & 25 Things You Need To Know

An 'abomination'? Aren't you the guy whose self-stated amorality
doesn't admit the use of the words 'good' and bad'?

Ok, then call it, logically unsound.

You're pretending to be stupid, eh? The richest people on this
plant have always used OPM (other people's money) to make theirs.

Horse***. FIRE based parasitism is a recent phenomenon. What ***
are you smoking? The wealthiest people are in businesses that PRODUCE
things.

Well no, consumption is. You can produce all you like, but it's
worthless unless it gets bought.

Again, PRODUCTION is wealth.

Consumption is NOT. You can consume far beyond your means so long as
you can accrue debt. Having assets = liabilities does not imply
wealth.

I've avoided such slights against your profession. Your "I'm a
fucking lawyer so shut the fuck up" line which you spin on matters
legal I could also invoke on matters banking, but I won't.

You don't appear to know much about banking; that's the problem. You
defend the status quo, sure, but you appear to be completely ignorant
of the broader trends unfolding around you. Everyone who's been right
for years is a "wannabe" blogger. As if your own inability to admit
the plainly obvious somehow trumps their perspective because you're a
"banker"?

Oh m'f'er....please...an argument over the definition of 'own' is
beneath you.

Beneficial use is now ownership? Since when?

Equity is the game, plus buy what appreciates at a rate faster than
tax-effected inflation.

LOL...equity. Equity in a ponzi? HAHAHAHA. That was the perfect
scam.

Dumbass!!! You'd still be saving the damn deposit for the house I
recommended six years ago for $250k that's now worth $1.1m!!!!!

You are talking about SPECULATION, ***! PLAIN and simple. I
submit that "earnings" garnered through SPECULATION are counter
productive to healthy economies!

Rampant SPECULATION is a precursor to COLLAPSE. It always has been.

So you sell it and do what you want with the profit, which, if it
were your principal place of residence, would be capital gains tax
free.

I'll just go and hit the powerball instead.

YOUR problem starts if YOU"RE the guy who just bought it for
$1.1m.....NOT ME!

LOL...said like a true speculator, money for nothing. I guess Paul
was right.

Maybe in your world.

Yeah in my world. The rich people I know own the *** outright,
buddy. They pay cash.

That's a prediction, and thanks for it.

Anytime.

Depends on whose numbers you're looking at.

LOL...whose numbers do YOU look at, dude?

Mine are reported by Reuters. Who's your source again?

Freefall?

Yes...dramatic, unprecedented slowdown. Japan very likely saw
recession in the last quarter too, on the order of -4% GDP. We saw
recession as well, officially, in at least Q1. What planet do you
live on, man?

Well you'd better cobble together your definition of a Ponzi,
because it doesn't accord with mine...or anyone else's.

You couldn't spot a ponzi if one landed on you.

China's largest component of GDP is built around building more GDP.
Do you get THAT?

Rational people have invested in tax-effective, appreciating
assets.

tax appreciating...hahaha...because as we all know, housing ALWAYS
goes up?

Homes are NOT an investment...that is your first error. People tried
to get in on a pyramid fueled by cheap credit from the BOJ as they've
tried to fight deflation for 2 decades.

By gestalt, you would have recommended the opposite investment
strategy?

YES! I'd have recommended that the governments and central banks NOT
try to massively MISALLOCATE capital to NONPRODUCTIVE means!

Well you'd be wise to rent a depreciating asset and buy an
appreciating one.

Then rent in Australia, because your RE bubble has peaked.

Well, if you see the whole shebang as gutted to the gills, yeah, it
is.

But that's yet to pass, if it does at all, at least within the
time-frames you suggest.

You'll get your head around it one day. People like you can't
conceive of any other reality; that's fine...bury your head.


They own a share in it, and perhaps that share or equity is about
to rapidly diminish.

HAHAHAHAHA...just like NAB's "share" of their equity, eh?

The people who buy houses near bubbles' peaks, at *** like 6.5x
income, don't own a gd'd thing.

But I've seen enough of the planet over time to know what good and
what's not.

You haven't, clearly. It all looks good until reality comes crashing
in.

No, you just think you do.

Sigh...whatever, man. Keep sourcing those loans and betting on the
ascendancy of China...in a peak oil climate...wtf. The debt bubble
has hit saturation globally; there's no more growth to be had. The
decades of misallocation have finally ended for obvious reasons. So,
bet on the status quo, it's your money to lose.

When the leverage outstrips the income. If/when it happens, you can
say "I told you so'.

Hah. Expect that soon.

On what exactly did we spend it on, Trav?

Houses? It sure as *** wasn't on productive capacity.

Infrastructure to feed manufacturing gluts?

Prediction noted....by try and remember that that's all it is.

Wow...really? And, my previous predictions turned out to be real. I
seem to recall many throwing fits over those too. Were you one of
them?

Explain where the prediction runs awry. China is going to increase
GDP and continue to grow because they "want" to build 100,000,000
cars? With WHAT OIL?

They WANT them, dude, just like your mob did. But this time,
there's not 300 million of them....there's a few BILLION of them.

Who GIVES A *** about a BILLION peasants!??! How in the hell are
they at ALL relevant?

So, let me get this straight: you don't actually SEE the structural
flaws in China's "economy"???

I'm glad we didn't send *you* to negotiate our coal, iron ore,
bauxite and natural gas export contracts.

Who gives a *** what you negotiated? China's DEMAND for these is
going to DECREASE, got it? It HAS TO.

The economies of ALL their clients are SLOWING RAPIDLY, with their
major export customers ALL in recession! Spending is falling off the
map here, Europe, and in Japan, as all three zones are seeing demand
destruction that is profound.

What planet do you live on, man?

I don't care how many cars the Chinese would LIKE to own, the majority
of people LACK the wealth to own them and there isn't sufficient OIL
to meet the demand in the first fkin place!

Look at India...their auto industry is throttling back, another
miracle "growth" story. BMW is even cutting capacity...Toyota is
going to reduce capacity by 10%. This is TOYOTA, dude.

Again, what planet are you on? This isn't solely due to US slowdown,
either...BMW is seeing sales weakness in EVERY MARKET.

Not a chance!

If you bet on these statements you make, you will end up broke.

Not our problem.

How the *** is it NOT your problem when you require their purchase of
your assets to manufacture?

The facts are what they are. What may happen in the future is
anybody's guess, but a complete meltdown of the world's financial
systems, (which would including default by the US treasury) would
affect almost everyone on the planet.

Yep. Even a BLIP in China will cause your wheels to come off.

I submit that this blip is already unfolding, much as you would prefer
to ignore it.

Oh, I know a Ponzi alright...

One is right outside your window.

Sorry, I'm not going to respond to the rest because this message is
getting too long.

Trav
.