Re: The Hunger. Mathus was right
- From: rigger <dgrup@xxxxxxx>
- Date: Tue, 15 Apr 2008 11:58:29 -0700 (PDT)
On Apr 15, 10:02 am, h...@xxxxxxxxxx wrote:
Malthus's expectations of growth in population
Since 1800, global food production has generally kept pace with
population growth, but increasing numbers of humans call for new ways
"to increase yields while preserving natural habitats and
biodiversity".[2]
Elwell states that Malthus made no specific prediction regarding the
future; and that what some interpret as prediction merely constituted
Malthus's illustration of the power of geometric (or exponential)
population growth compared to the arithmetic growth of
food-production.[3] Rather than predicting the future, the Essay
offers an evolutionary social theory. Eight major points regarding
evolution appear in the 1798 Essay:[4]
1. subsistence severely limits population-level
2. when the means of subsistence increases, population increases
3. population-pressures stimulate increases in productivity
4. increases in productivity stimulate further population-growth
5. since this productivity can not keep up with the potential of
population growth for long, population requires strong checks to keep
it in line with carrying-capacity
6. individual cost/benefit decisions regarding sex, work, and
children determine the expansion or contraction of population and
production
7. checks will come into operation as population exceeds
subsistence-level
8. the nature of these checks will have significant effect on the
rest of the sociocultural system -- Malthus points specifically to
misery, vice, and poverty
-----
damn. Eight out of eight right. Impressive.
so what do you think will be the outcome? All out world war to thin
the population again, or will we collectively isolate the starving
regions and simply sit back on our stores and watch billions die?
Hal
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Riots over rising grain prices are ripping through the developing
world and the United Nations warns there's worse to come. Was Malthus
right? Are we getting too numerous to feed ourselves?
This week, food riots paralyzed Haiti, with angry marchers outside the
president's palace shouting "We are hungry!" Five people were killed
in the
chaos.
In Egypt, a 15-year-old boy was shot and killed this week in two days
of violence over food shortages. Last month, a two-week protest at
government-subsidized bakeries ended with the deaths of 10 Egyptians
in clashes with police.
Rice is the staple food of 4 billion people. But the prices for it,
along with corn, wheat and other basics, has surged by 40 per cent to
80 per cent in the last three years and caused panicked uprisings in
some of the poorest countries on Earth, from Cameroon to Bolivia.
The situation has deteriorated so swiftly that some experts predict
the effects of a global food crisis are going to bite more quickly
than climate change.
According to the World Bank, 33 countries are now vulnerable to social
unrest and political instability because of food insecurity - and that
has implications for all the rest. Major rice producers like China,
Cambodia and Vietnam are already battening down, curbing exports to
ensure supplies for their own populations. The Philippines, whose
population has grown from 60 million to almost 90 million in 17 years,
is warning rice hoarders they'll be charged with economic sabotage.
Why is it happening? Was Malthus right when he said the world would
eventually be too populated to feed itself?
The United Nations already provides food for 73 million people in 78
countries worldwide. But the planet is getting hungrier. At least 4
million more people are being added to the list, most of them living
in
high-density, Third World cities.
The new face of hunger - and thirst - is overwhelmingly urban.
It takes 1,000 tonnes of water to produce one tonne of food, but water
scarcity is affecting supplies. And, as Lester Brown, president of
Earth
Policy Institute in Washington, has cautioned: "A future of water
shortages will be a future of food shortages."
The current crisis was ignited by a number of elements coming together
in deadly tandem. Analysts say the most important one - the jump in
global fuel prices - has triggered a chain reaction in the entire
food-production system, from seed planting right through to the
delivery
process.
http://www.thestar.com/article/413769
The situation can only get worse, regardless of action
or inaction.
The population will continue to grow.
Gene swapping in agriculture will provide temporary
relief.
Populations will continue to grow.
Forests will be destroyed.
Wars will grow larger.
Disease will take millions.
Populations will continue to grow.
Not necessarily in that order.
Anyone is free to add some better
news to the "gloom and doom"; I'd
like to know what it is.
dennis
in nca
.
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