Re: predicting outcomes was: Re: RMA is dying (Hal is an idiot)


They absolutely, positively 100% are *not* random.

so what you are saying is that a fighter goes into a ring with the
intent on creating a specific pattern of movement around the ring?

No dummy. Nobody is saying anything like that except for you, in the
form of a strawman. What we're saying is that fighters have
tendancies; not that they INTEND to fall into any sort of pattern. A
good counter-puncher tends to move towards his power hand, not because
he just happens to like it better, but because it allows him to hit
with more power. Southpaws tend to dislike moving left because moving
in that direction, especially against a normal fighter, tends to leave
them vulnerable.

It has nothing to do with actively deciding on a pattern; a southpaw
who keeps moving to his left is going to find himself tagged hard. A
counter-puncher who keeps moving against his power hand is going to
lose his best weapons.

Really?  Or do they go in with the intent of attacking their opponent
and chase them all over ring regardless of where the resulting actions
lead him?  If you observe a match and map out the movements you will
have a roughly equal number of turns to the right and turns to the
left.  

BASED ON WHAT? What evidence do you have of this? How many fights
have you even WATCHED let alone "mapped out" in this manner? Face it
Hal - you are GUESSING at this ***. You are GUESSING on what happens
in a fight, and you are GUESSING on the math. And the reason you are
guessing is that you don't have a fucking clue about EITHER.

The probability of guess each move in advance of course is .5
as I think you finally might understand.  But overall all turns will
be roughly equal and there will be no discernable pattern in Rs and
Ls.  

Again, based on what? I've been boxing for years; I've always heard
boxers talk about opponents tendancies. Trav mentions a perfect
example a few posts up about a fucking knockout that came about
BECAUSE the opponent did exactly what was expected. You have
absolutely nothing but guesswork behind anything you are saying.

No one goes into a ring planning on turning right once, then left
twice, then right again, then left three times, or whatever, or always
favor turning to the left, or to the right.  

Who said they did? Aside from YOU in the form of your strawman?

People simply don't
behave that way unless they are insane.  

Insane can be defined as someone doing the same thing over and over
and expecting a different result. You posting the same inane ***
over and over again and expecting it to somehow suddenly become right
is a perfect example.

And people don't fight that
way either.  So yes, over the course of a match overall movements will
be random throughout the ring.  

Based on what?

No one fights in patterns.  Multiple
animal behavior experiments including on people show that animals do
not naturally move in patterns.  

What animal experiements? The only experiements you've mentioned are
the ethology experiements, and it has already been explained to you
why those do not apply. You are as inept at psychology as you are in
math.

And again, intent does not preclude
the fact that the resulting movements are random. Unless you really
think like shuurai that you have some kind of foolproof system that
you can use to predict with 100% accurracy what someone is going to
do.  Love to see it if you do.

And again, nobody has said anything about any system; and certainly
nothing about 100% prediction. Face it bubba... you don't understand
the question, the subject the question is about, or any of the tools
you are trying to use to answer the question. There is very little
you could do at this point to make yourself look any more stupid than
you already do.

But lord knows you're going to try.
.

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