Re: predicting outcomes was: Re: RMA is dying (and Kirk and shuurai are lying)

On Tue, 19 Feb 2008 10:22:50 -0500, "Jerry B. Altzman"
<jbaltz@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

on 2008-02-19 10:08 hal@xxxxxxxxxx said the following:
I explained it exactly like the common coin toss experiment, which it

Except...it's NOT a coin-toss experiment. There aren't two outcomes,

yes there are according to Kirk's original question right OR left.
You want to do a simple experiment, you have two half circles R and L.
Ignore straight forward and straight back because that was not part of
the original problem statement. So you have a simple two outcome
probability

and
even if there are, they're not necessarily equally likely!

Ah, yes, THAT is the question. IF they are not equally likely, then
why not? State your data. What is your level of accuracy?


event. Let me know if you have any questions Jerr, I'm here to help.

Gee, thanks! If I ever develop a strong need to become stupid, I know
where to turn.

well, clearly YOU are the one who does not get it, so stupid is as
stupid does I guess.

I mean, it's not that hard Jerr. Look on it as a simple animal
behavior experiment. You are observing a match, and classifying all
movements of the subjects jumping around in the ring. Bisect their
circle into R and L. Count the number of each. If you can't tell
which, discount it ( perfectly forward and backward movements are
rejected, this will NOT change the data set and a sufficiently large
enough sample set will make rejections irrelevent). What are the
relative occurances of each? How can you assign probabilities to the
occurance of each R or L? What probability model will apply? Over a
large sample size what will be your distribution? If this is not a
normal binomial distribution why not? What is it that can lead you to
conclude that you will have a higher number of occurances of Rs or Ls?
What is the accuracy of your data? If you conclude your data is
inadequate to change your normal distribution, then how can you
predict outcomes based on standard distribution?

I mean *** me, you assholes are always calling me stupid, but none of
you apparently have had any fucking science, OR mathematics, and can't
even apply a simple fucking probability model to an every day
occurance. ***, it's a fucking experiment you dumbasses. Try to
apply all the complicated *** they made you sit through between
football practice and try to think through a simple applied math
model.

I mean, ***, don't you even count cards and figure your probabilities
of remaining cards? Damn. Let's play poker fellas... bring your
money.


Hal


Hal

//jbaltz
--
jerry b. altzman jbaltz@xxxxxxxxxxx www.jbaltz.com
thank you for contributing to the heat death of the universe.

.