Re: The writing is on the wall

"travisgod@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx" <travisgod@xxxxxxx> wrote in
news:1188931350.507558.25800@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx:

On Sep 4, 2:23 pm, "nemo_outis" <a...@xxxxxxx> wrote:
You have let peak oil become a monomania.

no, I have not. However, in the case of RUSSIA, EVERYTHING does
follow their oil production curve.

Yep, monomania, fixation, tunnel vision.

Russia is using the resource to refinance its reemergence as a world
power: politically, economically and militarily. Russia exports oil,
the US imports it - that tells you a lot about future relative strength!

I have every expectation that they can rebuild their econony (having
jettisoned the old equipment and methods) and will be *better
positioned* than the US (which has to IMPORT roughly half of what it
consumes)


Yes, it's important, but it
does not dominate everything else.

Of course it does. Energy supply is how industrialism is permitted to
be expressed, you idiot.


No, energy is only one input to industry, and oil is only one form of
energy. As energy cost rises (due to supply/demand pressures) use of
the input will be adjusted in terms of both quantity and efficiency to
achieve the same or greater output. Did no one ever explain to you why
Belchfire V8s disappeared even in the US in the 70s? (and came back
again, reincarnated as SUVs, when oil dropped to $10/bbl in the 90s?)


On a worldwide basis we are just
hitting peak oil - while it will pinch, there are several decades to
come before oil comes close to running out. The demand side will
adjust - without crippling economies!

utter horse*** and demonstrably wrong everywhere there's been a
significant peak. Economies and markets are based upon expectations
of growth.


Present estimates of world reserves (variable and politically
manipulated but nonetheless useful) are something like 1.3 trillion bbls
- current consumption is 80+ million bbl/day or so. That's 40+ years at
current consumption: several decades, as I said.

Yes, demand is predicted to increase - but only for moderate increases
in oil cost. If cost goes through the roof demand is reduced and supply
increases (not so much due to exploration any more, but to increased
production from expensive sources such as tar sands)

Decades, Trav.


Industrialism is about growth.


No, Trav, industrialism is about production.

And energy is only one input to production, and oil is only one form of
energy. Oil energy is an input that has competitors (coal, nuclear,
etc.) and which has *gigantic* scope for more efficient use (perhaps
halving the energy input per unit of production)


I'd like for you to tell me how there is a direct proportional
relationship between energy consumption and GDP and then how, if
supply falls, one should expect GDP to continue to rise.


The current correlation between GDP and oil consumption is predicated on
cheap oil. As oil becomes more expensive it will be used more
efficiently and other energy sources will be substituted for it. A game
that will play out over *decades!*

Economic impact? Social disruptions? Political fallout? International
jockeying for control of oil? A few more wars to add to mankind's
misery? You bet. But the world's economies will adapt and change, not
collapse. (Some, like the US, will shrink and that will bring pain,
both economic and psychic, to those previously living off the fat of the
land - but, in the grand scale of things, just another empire that
passed its prime and faded.)


Russia, besides being the greatest exporter of natural gas and number
2 in oil, has by far the greatest stock of natural resources in the
world in other areas as well. I expect it to be a major force on the
world stage for decades. If the China alliance through SCO holds I
expect that it will be even more powerful.

They [Russia] are riding the dead cat bounce on their oil production
curve

A fascinating thesis. So, if Russia, an oil *exporting* country, is
riding the dead cat bounce, what is the US - which IMPORTS half its oil
- riding on?

China is the rising giant - just plain unstoppable (even ignoring
that it's the US' banker these days and can squeeze US balls
mightily). The question is when will Japan fall out of US ambit and
align itself with China (a far more natural trading partner). The
power of an aligned China/Japan (even just as a trade alliance) will
dwarf the power of the US.

Regards,

This really is all irrelevant. You're talking *** as if the
perpetual exponential growth in energy and GDP is going to continue
indefinitely.


It is you who is obsessed with growth. Up until now I had not spoken of
it.

And, this is a monomania for you, so much so that you ignore facts
grossly contrary to your position.

When there is no more oil available for export, what is going to
happen to China?


The US, which imports more oil than any other nation on earth will have
long since cratered.


You claim that global peak will not cripple economies? Where is the
energy going to come from, not just to make up the shortfall, but to
permit additional economic growth?


Once again you are obsessed with growth. But (although this will come
as a surprise to USians) there doesn't have to be endless industrial
growth, and there is still *gigantic* scope for using energy more
efficiently and productively.


Also, if the US Empire collapses, gone is the consumer base for the
largest share of industrial manufacture. Yes, it was debt-financed,
but do you honestly believe that this poses no threat of impact to the
bazillions of Chinese factories - more by the day being built with no
credible expecation of customers able to pay - that produce the goods
for said consumer?

There is currently a worldwide mania for consumption and growth;
expensive - NOT unavalable! - energy will go a long way to curtail that
insanity. Godd for the planet, good for mankind. The fact that endless
growth is not sustainable implies, oddly enough, that it will not be
sustained. A tautology that should not surprise anyone (except USians)
But, hard as that may be for a USian consumer to absorb, that does not
mean that life will revert to the dark ages.

Mankind, especially the very small priviled fraction of mankind used to
overconsumption, will be *forced* to live more lightly on this planet.
No big deal - most of mankind will shed few tears for the privileged few
being discommoded by the loss of their luxuries.


They have invested nothing in quality of life and
are prospering solely due to low marginal labor costs.

Pretty much how the US established itself v Great Britain in the 19th
century. Cheap labour, impenetrable economic barriers to entry, etc.
Same old story, just in more modern dress.

Japan became the second biggest economy on earth with a resource base of
ZERO. Compared to that China has a gigantic advantage.

Regards,



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