Re: The writing is on the wall

On Sep 4, 2:23 pm, "nemo_outis" <a...@xxxxxxx> wrote:
You have let peak oil become a monomania.

no, I have not. However, in the case of RUSSIA, EVERYTHING does
follow their oil production curve.

Yes, it's important, but it
does not dominate everything else.

Of course it does. Energy supply is how industrialism is permitted to
be expressed, you idiot.

On a worldwide basis we are just
hitting peak oil - while it will pinch, there are several decades to come
before oil comes close to running out. The demand side will adjust -
without crippling economies!

utter horse*** and demonstrably wrong everywhere there's been a
significant peak. Economies and markets are based upon expectations
of growth. Industrialism is about growth.

I'd like for you to tell me how there is a direct proportional
relationship between energy consumption and GDP and then how, if
supply falls, one should expect GDP to continue to rise.

Russia, besides being the greatest exporter of natural gas and number 2
in oil, has by far the greatest stock of natural resources in the world
in other areas as well. I expect it to be a major force on the world
stage for decades. If the China alliance through SCO holds I expect that
it will be even more powerful.

If you *actually* expect this instead of are trolling, then you're a
fool. I really couldn't care less if Russia is or is not an important
nation. All I concern myself with is what the truth is about them.
They are riding the dead cat bounce on their oil production curve,
coupled with higher real prices for the commodity. However they will
SOON reenter terminal decline in production and will achieve the same
in NG within a relatively short period of time.

As for their significance as a nation, you're a fool. Russia is
confronting a situation where domestic demand is growing by 5% or more
(that is industrial/economic growth in play, idiot), placing
increasing demands upon their production base. Within a decade,
Russia will have NO energy products to export.

China is the rising giant - just plain unstoppable (even ignoring that
it's the US' banker these days and can squeeze US balls mightily). The
question is when will Japan fall out of US ambit and align itself with
China (a far more natural trading partner). The power of an aligned
China/Japan (even just as a trade alliance) will dwarf the power of the
US.

Regards,

This really is all irrelevant. You're talking *** as if the
perpetual exponential growth in energy and GDP is going to continue
indefinitely.

PS In short, the US had its chance as sole global superpower from 89 to
07 - and largely squandered it! Now the future is multipolar. (And it's
fun to watch the lesser powers do their dance as they realign themselves
in recognition of this (even, for instance, SA and the Gulf states are
slipping away). The sun is setting - setting fast! - on the US Empire.

And, this is a monomania for you, so much so that you ignore facts
grossly contrary to your position.

When there is no more oil available for export, what is going to
happen to China?

You claim that global peak will not cripple economies? Where is the
energy going to come from, not just to make up the shortfall, but to
permit additional economic growth?

Also, if the US Empire collapses, gone is the consumer base for the
largest share of industrial manufacture. Yes, it was debt-financed,
but do you honestly believe that this poses no threat of impact to the
bazillions of Chinese factories - more by the day being built with no
credible expecation of customers able to pay - that produce the goods
for said consumer?

This latest bout of "economic expansion" was a supply-side delusion,
Nemo. It was financed by debt and CB inflation. When it inflects, it
will hit china far harder. China is already getting squeezed by even
lower-cost manufacturing in Vietnam, for example. Nevermind China's
pollution problem. They have invested nothing in quality of life and
are prospering solely due to low marginal labor costs. China's
inefficiency and mismanagement are legion...these issues are never a
problem during good times, are they? You can write as many bad loans
as you want to during the boom phase, but once inflection hits you,
those hens come home to roost like a plague of locusts.

Japan was a FAR better-run nation than China is, and nothing they
could do could stop them from hitting the supply-side wall. Since
then, their debt at all levels has exploded - they are functionally
insolvent, worse than we - and they've tried to reflate their way out
of the inevitable irreversible price collapse that visits the end of
supplyside bubbles...it hasn't worked.

Trav

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