Re: Martial law comes to New Orleans.


You keep trying to squirm out of the fact that you can't even get simple
questions right making any pronouncement you make on anything more complex
completely worthless. Worse, actually, since you use a wrong basis, you are
_more_ likely to get a wrong answer than you would get from random guessing.
You trying to make a statistical argument is like someone trying to do
arithmatic from the basis of 1+1=3. It will lead to wrong answers.

my original contention was correct: you cannot possibly make an
accurate prediction beyond an equally likely outcomes (ie 50-50)
simply because you don't have adequate data from which to accurately
skew your "guess".

Your original contention was wrong because you didn't (and still don't)
understand the discussion. You have neither the fighting background
nor the statistics background; and while a person of average
intelligence might be able to keep up with the conversation without
those two things, you don't seem to have average intelligence going for
you either.

The original question was never about making a "guess" about anything.
The topic was about combining visual clues - also known as "tells" -
with past data. If you see a fighter drop his lead hand before he
throws a kick a bunch of times, you can use that to determine, with a
reasonable degree of accuracy, that he's going to kick when you see
that movement.

Boxers have been using tells for a very, very long time. So do other
types of fighters. So do poker players, football teams, fencers; hell,
in just about any activity that pits one person or group against
another person or group, you'll find people looking for (and
successfully using) tells of some kind.

The fact that you believe otherwise based on your half-assed,
completely ass-backwards understanding of statistics is absolutely
irrelevant. The fact remains that you simply DO NOT UNDERSTAND THE
DISCUSSION.

that much is correct. That was the issue. That was my answer. And it
is, in fact, correct.

No; it's wrong. You are wrong, and you're not even bright enough to
know why you're wrong.

anything else is your pedantry, and a nice red herring.

Yeah, we know how much you hate people who actually know what they're
talking about. Those "college types" you were ranting about not so
long ago... them and their daggum book lernun...

The truth of the matter is that you don't know what you're talking
about. You have less understanding of statistics than the average high
school student. Same with your knowledge of fighting. The other
advantage the average high school student has over you is that he'd
know enough not to get into this debate in the first place. The
average high school student would have dropped out a long time ago; or
better yet tried to learn something.

The only thing you have going for you is that you're entertaining.
You're the court jester of RMA, and it's just good fun watching you
bash your head against rocks. So please, by all means continue bashing
away. Post more bullshit about how you're right and everyone else is
wrong. Find some article with the word "statistics" in it somewhere
and paste it here, and keep your fingers crossed that it accidentially
contains something relevant that supports your position.

.

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