Re: Peak Oil: Humanity Will Go Back to Swords and Spears

<<I usually stay out of these threads but this one has my curiosity
piqued.

Can any recommend additional reading (for and against) on this topic?


Jeezus, man, you could google travisgod Peak Oil and check the archives
of RMA.

I forecast everything which is occurring now in energy prices as well
as the previous runup in both gold and other commodities.

World Peak Oil may have already occurred. 120mbpd is a fantasy.
There are public proclamations by CEOs of companies like Total saying
as much. XOM and the other big multinationals are no longer doing any
real exploration. Nothing in it for them. There hasn't been a field
find of greater than 500mbbl for a few years now.

Global discoveries peaked in 1962. The USA hit Peak in 1970, to our
complete surprise. One year later, we dismantled Bretton Woods. The
USSR hit Peak in 1989. They ceased to exist within 1 year.

People who claim that efficiency of extraction or technology can
reverse Peak are fools; the USA peaked in 1970. We now produce 34%
less oil than we did then, despite every technological advance.
Increased rates of wildcat drilling do not increase discoveries. Every
nation in the world save one or two (Iraq is one) is in production
decline. Mexico peaked in 04. The North Sea has peaked, SA has
probably passed Peak or is at it. Kuwait, Iran, USA, Russia, all of
them. Only Iraq and UAE have any significant pre-Peak capacity.

Given what SA has been doing to Ghawar to meet slack demand needs,
their production decline may be very severe. They currently use
seawater injection to maintain field pressure, and daily pump 7 million
gallons into the earth, or more, who knows. Aramco is very vague and
allows no external reserves audits.

Hydrogen is like a battery; it needs to be charged. There are no
hydrogen mines. It requires energy to produce.

The PROBLEM with Peak Oil, and this is what I've struggled to get
people to understand, is that it is not that oil is going to dry up, it
is that our ability to GROW supply year-over-year is going to end.
Until Peak, every year saw more oil produced than the last. After
Peak, every year yields LESS oil.

Because GDP is bound to energy supply, one needs to grow energy supply
to grow an economy. Industrialism is built upon presumptions of
GROWTH. Merely standing still is unacceptable.

Wealth or its converse is measured roughly in GDP per capita. If GDP
does not grow and population does, you have declining wealth or
increasing poverty. Take your pick. What I have forecast is sustained
global recession and a brief world war within the next 10-15 years.
After that, global expeditionary war will be impracticable.

The ONLY way out of this is to invent fusion power. Coal can sustain
us only 75 years at a 2% growth rate in demand and that means horrific
pollution, and 2% is low. Once hydro, wind, and solar are at
deployment saturation, their energy supply CANNOT be increased. Oil is
free energy, the renewables aren't; they have manufacturing costs
concomitant thereto.

What Peak Oil means is that industrialism becomes untenable because it
begins to cost more and more just to move objects against the force of
gravity. It begins to get too expensive to even CONSTRUCT power plants
because their return on investment becomes negative.

Now, much gets made about renewables and stuff, ethanol...it's great.
Love it. But, again, you have an issue about how to sustain growth.
If you have a biodiesel farm and next year there is going to be a 4%
growth in demand, you must grow 4% more algae or switchgrass. There
will not be 4% more land, at some point, to grow this on. You have
reached peak supply.

Industrialism is a car driving down the road whose occupants demand an
increase in speed every year. It's like the old fable about the king,
the rice, and the chessboard. Merely staying at the same speed for
this Industrial Car is unacceptable; it must go faster and faster and
faster. The grains of rice must double on each successive square.

So, we must supply fuel to this car at an ever-increasing rate. At
some point, our ability to do so ends. We can do no more than sustain
its Industrial speed.

Let's confine ourselves to the USA. We Peaked in 1970 at about 10mbpd,
which met ALL of our oil needs at the time.

We now consume like 22 mbpd. Yet, we produce only about 7. So, a
renewables initiative would not only had to have produced the 3 mbpd
that was *lost*, it would have had to produce an ADDITIONAL 12mbpd to
meet our needs for GROWTH in demand and growth in industrial output.
More people driving more miles consuming more goods using more power.
Does anyone ACTUALLY believe that 15mboepd from "renewables" is
feasible? And, next year, it'll be more, to account for the continuing
oil production decline AND the increase in oil demand needed for
growth!

What *can* be done is to preserve the existing standard of living, but
this would require zero population growth. We could replace all of the
current usage, but, again, we must not expect to grow production.

Trav

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Relevant Pages

  • Re: The writing is on the wall
    ... Reserves divided by current production rate is useLESS. ... Russia's oil ... Industrialism can work just fine without growth. ...
    (rec.martial-arts)
  • Re: Economic Collapse in September
    ... We will know we are at Peak whether or not the Saudis find honesty ... the Euro rate for oil would he higher, ... Industrial economics are about growth expectations. ... Growth is GDP increasing exponentially. ...
    (rec.martial-arts)
  • CERA says peak oil theory is faulty
    ... Does the peak oil "myth" just fall down? ... Press reaction to CERA report... ... theory that world oil production will soon reach a peak and go into sharp ...
    (misc.survivalism)
  • Re: The writing is on the wall
    ... reputable industry source agrees with you, so don't talk bullshit, Trav. ... Take a look at their demand growth versus realistic production decline ... another drop (and Russia is the leader in deep oil discovery). ... decline rate against a 9% consumption increase rate. ...
    (rec.martial-arts)
  • Bush Energy Department Hides Peak Oil Report
    ... Peak Oil-the moment when global oil production will reach its ... Peak-Oil debate to commission a report on the subject. ... The Hirsch report examines three scenarios: ...
    (soc.retirement)