Re: hal still doesn't understand basic Bernoulli Trial (was: Re: Xiaou? [taptap] Is this thing on?)

Good golly, you're about as sharp as a sack of wet mice. Stick to the "call Fraser gay" posts, at least you spell the words right there.

On 4/1/2006 11:08 AM, WannabeSomeone wrote:
Aside from that, in your 50-50 chance kind of game, if you take large enough number of outcomes, you can predict the odds based on the fact that it will be a 50-50 split. Say you want to toss a coin 1000 times and record the outcome. Say after the first 700 times you get a lot more heads than tails, you can pretty well say the odds of tail in the last 300 tosses should be higher than head.

No, you can't say that.

You've mentioned the classic "gambler's fallacy" -- if you got 700 heads in a row, the chances of the 701'st flip being heads is (for a fair coin) 50-50; the events are independent.

Damn, if you got any dumber, you'd be Gomer Pyle.

Wannabe

//jbaltz
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jerry b. altzman jbaltz@xxxxxxxxxxx KE3ML
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