Re: Boy Scouts make people nervous

On Mon, 20 Mar 2006 10:45:54 -0700, hal wrote:

On Mon, 20 Mar 2006 15:44:20 GMT, Rabid Weasel
<lawson@NO25071SPAM+dayton.net> wrote:

On Mon, 20 Mar 2006 08:18:57 -0700, hal wrote:

As for number of possible outcomes, just consider that every path the
coin can take is a possible outcome. We are only "binning" those outcomes
in terms of one of two final resting states.

Irrelevent. So coin tosses are all binned into two outcomes. Two
outcomes with equal likelihood of occurance. *** me, ain't that
amazing? What else would be binned into only two outcomes of equal
liklihood of occurance? Anything with only two possible outcomes.
Anything, unless we have enough information to conclude one is more
likely to occur than the other. Ain't that neat?

No hal. One determines "coin toss" outcomes to be 50/50 because we *do*
have enough information to draw that conclusion, not because we don't.

Two possible outcomes does *not* equate to even probabilities in the
absence of enough information to make a prediction.

then why does

P(event) = The Number Of Ways Event A Can Occur
/The Total Number Of Possible Outcomes

P(heads)=1/2=P(tails) ?

Hal

Because not everything is a coin toss. With some things even though there
are only two possible outcomes the possibility of such outcomes may not be
assumed 50/50.

Take a sock drawer for instance. The drawer has only red socks and blue
socks. If you pull out a sock, you have only *TWO* possible outcomes, red
or blue. But you may not assume that you have an *equal* chance of
pulling either color. This is because you may have 40 blue socks and only
1 red sock. You still have only two possible outcomes but odds are
actually 40 to 1. But if you don't *know* how many blue socks and red
socks there are you *CAN NOT* assume an even distribution. You just
can't. Period. The *only* thing you can say is, "we don't have enough
information to draw any statistical conclusions."

It's the same for *any* population in which there are only two outcomes
but you don't have any more infomation. How many people on RMA have
actually killed someone? 50%, right?

What percentage of the world owns a Lava Lamp? 50%, right?

What percentage of Chinese drink green tea? 50%, right?

What percentage of the world's population is male? 50%, right?

....not.

:P

(IH)
.

Quantcast