Re: Boy Scouts make people nervous

On Fri, 17 Mar 2006 22:51:49 GMT, "David L. Burkhead"
<dburkhuad@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:


You keep conflating number of states with number of outcomes. The two
are not the same. It's the number of states that determine probability, not
the number of outcomes.

And no more irrelevent examples. Keep it to the two outcome model
like we have been discussing.

Most of the examples I have given have been "two outcome models." That
you don't like them really doesn't matter. Even with a coin flip you have
(assuming the coin is flipped onto a flat surface rather than caught in the
air which would have a different set of controlling variables but for which
the same principles would apply) three continuous (on the macroscopic scale)
variables that mostly determine the result (angle between coin and surface
at instant of contact, angular velocity of coin about this point, and
translational velocity of coin at that instant). There are an infinite (for
practical purposes) number of ways the coin could strike the ground. The
vast majority of them will land the coin in one of two final orientations
but that is fundamentally no different from the splitting a continuous
"state" into two "bins" (as in the pendulum example. That you think it is
just demonstrates your own lack of understanding of the subject.

Wow. Talk about more overcomplicating bull***, followed by yet
another ad hominem. A coin toss has an infinate number number of
possible outcomes, eh? Yea, right. Have any supporting documentation
on that one? It's a new one to me. I'ld love to see that one in
writing somewhere.


Probabilities involving discrete events and regions within continuous
functions are fundamentally the same.

Uh, yea, so? More bull***.

Often, whether a case is treated as
one or the other is only a matter of which is easier to handle mathmatically
and it's not uncommon to switch representations back and forth in the course
of a single problem (use a discrete formulation to define your density of
states, then switch to continuous because the integral is easier to solve
than a summation of large numbers of terms).

Wow. More completely irrelevent bull***. At least you're
consistent.

That you think that the two
cases are distinct just demonstrates your own lack of understanding of the
subject.

*** you, dork. Despite all your obfuscation, it doesn't change the
fact that my original premise is correct: there is no valid
correlation between "tells" and what someone is going to do in a real
life situation, so all you have is guessing at outcomes using
probablities. Whether or not said probability is exactly 50-50,
60-40, or 99.999999-.000001 is completely irrelevent. Simple fact is,
it's still a guess, and you have a pretty damned good chance of being
wrong, so why try to guess? And what information do you have that
will tell you the outcome is NOT 50-50?

Hal





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