Re: Budapest defence

greg wrote:
1.d4 Nf6

2.c4 e5

3.dxe5 Ne4

4.a3

What is the best move to play after 4.a3?

Qh4, or Nc6? or a different move?



I don't know.

I checked a database of 3.6 million games using the free chess database ChessDB and find the following number of occurrences (n), scores and frequency

4...Nc6 n=123, frequency=31%, score = 66%
4...d6 n=105 frequency=27% score = 57%
4...Qh4 n=59, frequency=15% score=75%
4...b6 n=55, frequency=14%, score=73%

So on the face of it, 4...Qh4 scores better than 4...Nc6. However, the limited number of games, means the data is not statistically significant. The p-value is 0.507, indicating there is a 50.7% probability that the same (9%) or smaller difference occurs by chance. (Since this is 2-sides p-value, it indicates there is a 25% chance that 4...Qh4 scores better than 4...Nc6 just due to chance. So basically, the statistics can't be trusted.

The chess engine Toga thinks 4...Nc6 is best, which is the move played most often.

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