Percentages of finding fit


A thread here reminded me of a bad call I made as an experiment, but the mathematics of it intrigue me.

If you have a 4432 hand, what are the odds of an 8+ card fit in either of your four card suits? There are some people who play a 2D opening as 4 Ds + a 4 card major, and there views are that the chance of finding a fit is quite high.

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Furthermore, suppose the bidding goes

1C P 1S P
1NT P P ?

This is England, so assume 1C shows four. I had a 2=4=4=3 hand, so given the bidding [so assume no freaks etc] what are the odds of an 8+ card fit in either of your four card suits? I doubled to see what would happen, and partner with her 3=3=3=4 hand was not amused.

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Relevant Pages

  • Re: Another assess the blame for not reaching game
    ... a 2 card constructive S raise and could be considered a 2 card Limit ... trumps and the other honor outside where it is more likely to be ... or even a 9 card fit? ... worth under half a trick. ...
    (rec.games.bridge)
  • Re: Another assess the blame for not reaching game
    ... a 2 card constructive S raise and could be considered a 2 card Limit ... trumps and the other honor outside where it is more likely to be ... or even a 9 card fit? ... worth under half a trick. ...
    (rec.games.bridge)
  • Re: Another assess the blame for not reaching game
    ... a 2 card constructive S raise and could be considered a 2 card Limit ... The dirty little secret is that the trump Q tends to be worth ... or even a 9 card fit? ...
    (rec.games.bridge)
  • Re: Percentages of finding fit
    ... of your four card suits? ... The chance of an 8+ card fit in one of your two suits is 60.3% as ...
    (rec.games.bridge)
  • Re: Getting to vulnerable 4S
    ... Sounds great, but my partners never hold that hand (with four trumps, the ... Lack of a fourth trump opposite makes ... trick and a half better than an eight card fit, ... with an eight card fit game is much less likely. ...
    (rec.games.bridge)