Re: What do you open with this 85 : - /AQJ104/-/KQJ98653

On Sep 26, 6:39 am, "Lorne" <lorne_ander...@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
"ted" <morris...@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message

news:f53182a0-dae1-401a-8c19-22c7356652a7@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
On Sep 25, 5:54 am, "Lorne" <lorne_ander...@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:



"vincit" <jf.foh...@xxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message

news:fac5d47a-f1eb-4195-bd6c-fc876ad64924@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

You are NV against Vuln, you open as Dealer

S -
H AQJ104
D -
C KQJ98653

Do you consider it is a two suiters or a one suiter
What is your strategy with this hand? Is it just a matter of style?

It seems the possible reasonable bids are : Pass? / 1C / Your
strongest bid 2C (GF) or 2D (French) / 4NT Blackwood / 6C / psych
How would you rate each bid from 1 to 10

Would your tactic change in consideration of the strength of the
opposition?

5C or 6C are OK with me.

Even if 6C is wrong it may be a good board if the oppo make 6D or 6S or
other tables double them in a making 5D/5S so it is better than the 4/9th
chance it will make.

The chance that it will make is actually closer to 5/9 not 4/9. If you
don't believe me I have a simple spread*** exercise that should
convince you.
**************

please tell me then.

Use MS Excel or similar that has functional capabilities in the
individual cells. Use the random number generator (in Excel it is
rand() at the top of the first and second column.

In the third column use the "if" function to test the result of the
first column. Something like "if(a1[location of first cell in first
column]>1/3, 1[use this result if true, 0[use this result if false])"
Do the same for the 4th column to test the second column. In the fifth
column do a product of the result in the 3rd column and the 4th
column.

Finally copy the row of five cells and paste them on the next 999
rows.

Now sum the 5th column and divide by 1000 and you will get an
approximate probability of the opponents holding both the A of clubs
and the King of hearts. Subtract this result from 1 to get the
probability that partner holds one or both of them.


I was going for the simple approximation that could be done in your head
that it usually makes if partner has the QH or AC (=4/9ths).  There are some
extra chances such as singleton heart and ability to ruff out the K or
discard on 4 quick tricks in D or S but these can't be worth an extra 1/9th,
and there are is the offsetting case where a heart ruff kills you at trick 1
despite partner having what you want.

.

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