Re: Aces and Spaces vs. Source of Tricks

<paulhigh@xxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:69ca1287-d928-4482-aff8-7b1b669378cb@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Aces and Spaces vs. Source of Tricks

I'd like to propose a simulation to compare some hands. I apologize
for not investing in Dealmaster Pro myself to do this -- I've been out
of work most of the year.

The auction is 1NT-2NT, 15-17 and a natural game invitation,
matchpoint scoring. Let's assume 2NT could be any 8 or 9 hcp with any
4333, 5332 with a minor, or 4432 no major. In other words, about what
you'd expect from an intermediate player.

Now, which of these hands would you care to accept with?

Hand 1: A32 A32 432 AK109 15; 15.2
Hand 2: A32 A32 32 AK432 15; 14.8
Hand 3: A32 A32 32 AK1092 15; 15.2
Hand 4: A32 A32 A32 A432 16; 16.0
Hand 5: A32 A32 A32 A1092 16; 16.4


My results for 1,000 deals are:
Hand <8 8 9+ tricks
1 233 429 338
2 224 401 375
3 142 393 465
4 96 374 530
5 44 310 646

You can assume the results for 8 or 9+ tricks are within +/- 50 to nearly
100% probability, or if you accept 95% probability to +/-30.

I was a bit surprised hand 3 was not better so I ran it for 10,000:
1350 4011 4639



.

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