Re: Lead problem

"Chris" <chriswiggins@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:1188020036.447124.213450@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Playing matchpoints, you hold:
S-AJ32
H-J53
D-104
C-AJ32

The opponents' auction is:
1NT 2C
2H 4H
where 1NT is 15-17.

What do you lead?

You are not going to lead spades or clubs, especially because of the
strong NT on your right.

Partner will not provide much help. He has at most 4-5 HCP. So you'd
like to make a passive lead. But your diamond and heart holdings both
appear to have risk with them.

So which of diamonds and hearts is least likely to cost a trick?

If you lead a heart, then of the 45 possible doubletons, 16-all Kx and
Qx-are likely to cost (and those might not depending on declarer's
trump holding) while the other 29 don't cost a trick.

If you lead a diamond, no simple calculation exists. But suppose
partner has Kxxx (in which case partner is also likely to hold at
least one of the 8 and 9). Then leading the D-10 is likley to cost a
trick.

A final consideration: Moreover, partner almost certainly has more
diamonds than hearts and is therefore more likely to hold a diamond
honor than a heart honor..

So what do you lead and why?

Oppo chose to play trumps rather than NT and it looks like I will get the
lead with 2 side aces so I lead a trumps each time I get in and hope they
make the same tricks as the NT declarers.


.

Relevant Pages

  • Re: Deals from a tournament ...
    ... EW play UDCA 3/5 leads. ... Partner leads the diamond 7. ... He then plays the Heart Ace followed by ...
    (rec.games.bridge)
  • Re: Is length or shortness in the opponents suit a plus when overcalling?
    ... He argues that with diamond shortness, ... increased by at least one and possibly two if partner also has extra ... heart length, hence we can expect significantly more total tricks. ...
    (rec.games.bridge)
  • Re: Lead problem
    ... Partner will not provide much help. ... But your diamond and heart holdings both ... Qx-are likely to cost (and those might not depending on declarer's ... If you lead a diamond, ...
    (rec.games.bridge)
  • Re: Is length or shortness in the opponents suit a plus when overcalling?
    ... He argues that with diamond shortness, ... increased by at least one and possibly two if partner also has extra ... heart length, hence we can expect significantly more total tricks. ...
    (rec.games.bridge)
  • Lead problem
    ... Partner will not provide much help. ... But your diamond and heart holdings both ... Qx-are likely to cost (and those might not depending on declarer's ... If you lead a diamond, ...
    (rec.games.bridge)