Re: Bidding Theorists Please

<much snipping>


I bid out your hand as an exercise
Qx AKT9x
xx AKxx
AJxx KQxx
AKJxx --

1C 1H spades, 8+
1S* 1N hearts
2C* 2D 3-suited
2H* 2S diamonds
2N* 3S 5-4-4-0
3N 4NT 13 SPs (3-2-1)
5C* 5D S - 0 or 2 cards including A
5H* 5S H - 0 or 2 cards including A
5NT 6D D - yes, no 3rd spade
?

Now West has a problem because East could equally have
AKxxx, AKQx, Kxxx, ---

There is no solution in our (crude) relay method.
7D is a reasonable gamble. It's about 35% opposite the wrong hand but 85%+ opposite the actual.
Note that the actual is more likely statistically.


How much more likely?
H-AKxx + D-KQxx is about 3 times as likely as HAKQx + D-Kxxx.

What follows is crufe but close enough ..
Consider H-AKQx. The x can be 1 of 8 pips, in can be dealt 8 ways.
However, H-AKxx can be dealt 8C2 = 8!/(2!6!) ways = 28 ways.
It's true that D-Kxxx is a bit more common that D-KQxx
(7C3 = 35, 7C2 = 21)
but the actual hand is about 3 times as common. I Bgen-ed 32 hands and got just 8 with H-AKQx, as expected.

Relay bidders need a simple understanding of combination theory to make effective decisions on hands like this - when space and their flavour of denial cue-bidding doesn't quite work

Nick

.

Relevant Pages

  • Explanation
    ... You could have an impression that I am a lazy guy who wants to ask you silly ... However, it is quite opposite. ... present is in common use or not. ...
    (uk.culture.language.english)
  • Re: Udev coldplugging loads 8139too driver instead of 8139cp
    ... Actually, it's the order in which the probe functions run, which is ... hw is now alot more common, the two drivers are listed in the opposite ...
    (Linux-Kernel)
  • Re: Is it correct to say "sensical"
    ... commonly mainly in the negative rather than positive form, though if you're eccentric as I am, you go out of your way to use words like "peccable" instead of the more common impeccable. ... We may want to start a thread of all uncommon, but valid, positive forms of these negative words: peccable, maculate. ... I found myself commenting some code today and wanting to say the opposite of "most reecently used". ...
    (alt.usage.english)
  • Re: BrainBashers: June 2007 Common Answers Results
    ... to see how well I do, but on at least some questions I have no clue as ... to what the common answers will be. ... is the opposite of your answer to the preceeding question". ...
    (rec.puzzles)