Re: Distribution Question
- From: KWSchneider <schneider.kurt@xxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Wed, 06 Sep 2006 07:22:40 -0400
On Tue, 05 Sep 2006 19:01:16 -0500, Otis Bricker
<obricker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
KWSchneider <schneider.kurt@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in
news:auqrf2ll3iumpr0om88rd2ifl7b3rcj4rq@xxxxxxx:
In a recent simulation of 5332 shaped responder hands opposite a mini
NT, where opener must have 4333, 4432 or 5332 shapes [all suits], I
discovered that opener will have 3 trump on average, with 3 or more
71.5% of the time.
This seems counter-intuitive. Essentially it says that the pair will
have an 8-card fit, 71.5% of the time and, by extension, that notrump
is an inferior contract at lower combined point counts.
I don't understand your comment. What does this analysis have to do with
lower point counts? Do the odds change if you assume a 15-17 with the same
shape? I can imagine a small deviation but nothing significant.
It always semed obvious to me that a fit with the 5 card major was likely.
I don't see that being changed. Now whether playing in the major or NT is
better is a different question and will depend on the rest of the opener's
and responder's hands.
OB
My comment was related to the results of my simulations which were
intended to determine the best MP results for these distributions. For
ALL cases for responder having a point count between 0-11 [now that
the distributional results have been confirmed] was that he should
ALWAYS bid 2M with a 5crd major and NEVER pass 1N.
KWSchneider
NH, USA
.
- References:
- Distribution Question
- From: KWSchneider
- Re: Distribution Question
- From: Otis Bricker
- Distribution Question
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