Re: Flawed Analysis

"Anant Rege" <arege.@rogersdotcom> wrote in
news:1JidnV9ZHed4-LHZnZ2dnUVZ_tCdnZ2d@xxxxxxxx:

Following hand appeared in todays Globe and Mail, Toronto, Canada.

North

A J 10 x
K x
A 10 x x
A Q x

South

K Q x
Q x x
K Q 9 x
K J x

South opens 1 NT (15-17) and North jumps to 6 NT.
West leads a H 10, you play K, East takes A and continues. How do you
play?

<Skipping few lines>
<>
<>

<>

East

x x
A J x
J x x x
x x x x

West

x x x x x
10 x x x
x
x x x

The analysis by the columnist went as follows.

After taking H Q, if diamonds break 3-2, there are 12 tricks on top.
So you try to cater for a 4-1 break. Since 4 card D J can be finnessed
from either opponent, declarer should try to gather more information
about the opponent hands. When he cashes 3 clubs, both opponents
follow to all. When 4 spades are cashed, East discards on the third
spade. Now you know that West had 5 spades to start with, min. 2
hearts and 3 clubs so can not have 4 cards in diamonds. So you cash D
K followed by D A and finnesse East if they don't break.

Can you see the flaw in this reasoning assuming West is unlikely to
underlead an Ace after this bidding?

Anant




Sure.

Declarer should play low from dummy at trick 1.

If East wins ace, 12 tricks.

If East ducks, then cash the black suit winners. If you still don't know
who has 4 diamonds, cash KQ of diamonds. If East shows out, claim. If
West shows out, exit a heart to East's ace and claim.

Cheers ... Bill.
.

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