Re: A hand with many decisions - Play Problem - The result


Sandy E. Barnes wrote:
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Sandy E. Barnes wrote:
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Sandy E. Barnes wrote:
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Sandy E. Barnes wrote:
"Sandy E. Barnes" <sandybarnes007@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
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Match Points
Both RED

You Hold:
A32
T652
QT65
KT

Auction:
1D - 1H
2H! - ?

You play a weak 1NT opening at these colors.

2H! = 15 -17 support points, possible 3 card heart support.

Please select a bid from the options listed below:

2NT (natural, balance game invitation)

3D (game try, non-forcing)

3H (game try, strongly suggests a 5 card heart suit)

3NT (offers a game choice)

More later.

*****

Later has arrived!

You decide to bid 3D since either black suit might be a weakness for
no-trump, and your hand looks like a suit player. And, in addition,
the
diamond fit information may help partner decide what to do. The
auction
has
become:

1D - 1H
2H! - 3D
3H - ?

And you get to make what may be the last mistake. What would you pick
from
the following list?

a. Pass

b. 3NT

c. 4H

***
I bid 3D at the table, thinking that I might correct to 4H if partner
carried on to 3H over the 3D call. I was not put to the test since
partner
called 4H, somewhat unwisely, for reasons not explained to me. The
opening
lead was the Club 8 spot, and this is the dummy:

Dummy:
KJTX
AJXX
K9XX
X
Lead: Club 8, against 4H.
Declarer's hand:
AXX
TXXX
QT8X
KT

T1. C8, CX, CA, CT.
T2. D5, DX, DA, DX
T3. DX, DX, D2, D8
T4. CK, C2, SX, CX

You have been gifted with a defense which supports your auction, at
least
to
this point. What is your line of play from here?

Sandy Barnes

We need to work out from the play to date whether LHO is more likely to
hold Hx as opposed to Hxx of trumps, and then tackle hearts accordingly

When we asked the opps. about LHO's 8 of clubs lead, were we told "3rd
and 5th" or "usually 4th best" ? If they said "3rd and 5th", what did
they then say when we asked them what they lead from a 6-bagger? And
what do they lead from a bad 4 or 5 card holding such as 876xx?

RHO's dangerous diamond shift is bizarre since the club spots should
have told him that a club continuation was safe unless a) they were
playing 3rd and 5th best leads; b) he has a 5-bagger and c) he holds
AQ9xx of clubs and is afraid that his pard has led the 8 of clubs from
KJ8xxx so a club continuation would have yielded a sluff and ruff.

But if this is what RHO is worried about it means that LHO has led the
wrong club from his actual holding.

Alternatively RHO might hold AQ9xx(x) and is afraid that a club
continuation will give us a free finesse (e.g. we hold KJT. This would
imply he thinks his pard has led top of nothing from 876x(x).

Again, if this is what he was worried about it means that LHO has led
the wrong club from J876(x).

It's possible that LHO has led top of nothing, but this means RHO
didn't overcall 1D with some number of clubs despite holding AQJxx(x).

So when we mentally reviewed what we had learned about the opps. on the
previous board (or previous occassions) did we come to the conclusion
that one (or both) are fish?

If so, who is Nemo? LHO, RHO or both?

***
The fish proved to be I. But are you going to join me as a fish? How
are
you going to attack the hearts?

Sandy Barnes
***

Cheers.

Nick


I'll be happy join you in the pond, but before I decide on a line of
play I need you tell me a) what the opps. would have said in answer to
the questions I asked re their leads and b) what was your assessment of
their level of play.
***
I thought them weak. I expect that they were 4th best leaders, but I did
not ask.
***

Cheers.

Nick

If they lead 4th best, then the 8 of clubs was top of nothing. If so,
clubs rate to be 5-5 because RHO would likely have overcalled holding
AQJ9xx of clubs.

The difficulty with this conclusion is that it doesn't mesh with RHO's
diamond play at trick 2. Holding AQJ9x of clubs, most players would
have simply continued clubs at trick 2, particularly when our T fell on
the first trick.

RHO's decision to make a dangerous diamond switch suggests he held
AQ9xx(x), saw our CT and LHO's C8 at trick 1, decided we had KJT of
clubs, and was afraid another club play would give us a free finesse.

Since RHO may have overcalled some number of clubs if his hand included
AQ9xxx of clubs, it seems reasonable to play LHO to have J8762 and RHO
AQ9xx.

Since LHO seems to have only 5 unknown cards (he appears to hold 5c's
and 3 d's) while RHO has 6 unknown cards, it seems reasonable to play
LHO for the shorter heart holding. We should therefore play a low heart
to the J to cater to LHO's Hx of trumps.

This will also cater to LHO holding HHx of hearts, since he likely
would not have bid at this vulnerability holding either
xx-KQx-AJx-Jxxxx or Qx-KQx-AJx-Jxxxx.

Cheers.

Nick
***
RHO Held:
XXXX
QX
XX
AQJXX

The winning line is to lead the heart 10. I fell from grace and led low to
the jack. West had made an error by winning the diamond ace, not an
uncommon error. Not leading back a club honor looked like an error at
first, but, upon reflection, it was correct to switch to diamonds. It was
the only defense to insure beating the contract! However, I was able to
snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Sandy Barnes

Your play seems normal as were LHO's diamond plays (RHO was much more
likely to play diamonds at trick 2 if he held a singleton). By
contrast, RHO's switch at trick 2 cost the defense any chance at a
second diamond trick.

If RHO had simply played a club back at trick 2 you would have been in
the dark as to the lay-out of the hand and would have made the normal
play of a heart to the J. Since you still would have to guess the
diamonds and the spades in order to get out for down 1, the club play
at trick two would have given the defense excellent chances of beating
the contract 2 or 3.

Cheers.

Nick

.

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