Re: gnudung's dice manipulation

On Jan 1, 1:30 pm, monty1...@xxxxxxxxx wrote:

Why do you care?  You can easily go back and force it to roll
again, until it doesn't "get lucky."  Or do you not realize that?

If you force it to roll again after it already rolled a "lucky"
number, you would be cheating.

However, if you feel you recognize a position a critical and
"predict" that gnudung will roll what it needs or (what you
don't need), you may decide beforehand that you will discard
the next roll and let it roll again.

The problem with this is that if you want to post an entire
match to make a certain argument, you would need to provide
the seed so that people can duplicate the dice, either to
verify that you didn't fabricate the whole match or to run
their own experiments with the same sequence of dice, etc.

(You could also fabricate an entire match starting with a
given seed but that would take much more time. If people
don't want to believe you, nothing will help but you should
at least try your best to convince them.)

 What I found interesting when I played it a series of matches is
that I won about half the time, but if my "draw" feature was used,
I would have won about a third of the time.

I don't know what "your draw feature" is exactly but in the
past I had related my impression that if I could cancel
matches at any stage by predicting the next roll, there
would be very few matches completed.

The condition I had set for that was that I would have to
be ahead by more points than I could possibly lose in the
current game (according to cube value x backgammon).

Since I don't gamble online/offline, subjects like variance
insurance, smoothing out luck, etc. don't interest me and
personally I see no value in discussions based on assessment
of luck "after the fact" (i.e. after dice has been rolled).

MK
.

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