Re: Good position to understand the "equity" concept.

On Mon, 23 Jul 2007 07:27:22 -0700, pauldepstein@xxxxxxx wrote:

[...]

I find it paradoxical that if you move X's man on the 3 point to X's 2
point, O has a drop.
Intuitively, giving X just an extra 1/36 chance of bearing off
immediately doesn't seem like it would make 0.09 or so difference.

I know exactly how to demonstrate these calculations but I do find the
drop in the adjusted position to be counter-intuitive.

I think Bob answered the question pretty well.

Look at the numbers: "intuitively" about how large
is the difference between

-2(25/36) + (14/9)(11/36)

and

-2(26/36) + (14/9)(10/36)

? (If 14/9 were equal to 2 the difference would
be the -4/36 that he estimated more roughly.
Now say 14/9 = 1.5...)

Paul Epstein


************************

David C. Ullrich
.

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