Re: checker play problem



In article <1155865591.746066.152020@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>,
pauldepstein@xxxxxxx says...
GNU Backgammon Position ID: u1sDAQj3PAAAAA
Match ID : QYkEAAAAEAAA
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+ O: gnubg (Cube: 2)
| O | | O O O O O O | 0 points
| | | O O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
v| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X X | X
| | | X X X | X
| | | X X X | X Rolled 11
| | | X O X X | X 2 points
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+ X: user


I found this problem (money play) extremely difficult. I found two
candidate moves, but was unable to choose between them with any
confidence. Gnu agreed with me but, assuming gnu is right, it was
really just a lucky guess.

When in doubt between two moves look for the 3rd and 4th :). Well, I
guess my two first candidate moves weren't the two top ones.

My gut would do 1/off(3) and 2/1. This should increase the gammon more
than 4/3*/off (and a rollout says I'm wrong). With 7 men off and almost
certainly 3 more no matter what I do I should have the game and the
gammon should be possible although not likley considering the amount of
crossovers. Could well be that O should run with several rolls so I
don't have to worry much about getting hit anyway.

My second choice was 4/3*(4) but does not require more than a little
thinking to improve that to 4/3*(2) 2/off. One additional man off and a
nice dancing possibility giving the same result as my gut feeling. I
think the main thing here is that if O rolls good (5 or 6) he will run
off the gammon with either move but if he rolls bad I will achieve a
similar result and possibly have more points for him to dance on next
turn as well.

Over the board I'm sure I would go with my gut feeling as realizing the
good rolls for O matter would have taken some time to figure out. I'm
however amazed by the gammon percentage difference between the two
moves.

End result:
4/3*(2) 2/off.

Eskimo

--
//------------------------------
//Remove tämä all the way to and including soomee to mail directly.
//Ascended:W,V (genopolywish),P(ill ath), T,K,H,S,B,C,P,W
(naked),Ro,Ra,A,W,almost pacifist A
//In progress:PAIN
.



Relevant Pages

  • Re: Correct to double *and* correct to beaver
    ... If Black rolls a 6 he closes out a White ... Black has a huge drop if he misses - his probability ... Most initial attempts to solve it failed because the gammon ... "Understanding Godel isn't about following his formal proof. ...
    (rec.games.backgammon)
  • Re: Correct to double *and* correct to beaver
    ... If Black rolls a 6 he closes out a White ... Black has a huge drop if he misses - his probability ... rolls a 6 he has a huge probability of winning a gammon; ... "Understanding Godel isn't about following his formal proof. ...
    (rec.games.backgammon)
  • Re: Correct to double *and* correct to beaver
    ... If Black rolls a 6 he closes out a White ... rolls a 6 he has a huge probability of winning a gammon; ... instead of trying to calculate that probability one might ... low points and 1 checker on the edge of White's prime, ...
    (rec.games.backgammon)
  • Re: Correct to double *and* correct to beaver
    ... If Black rolls a 6 he closes out a White ... Black has a huge drop if he misses - his probability ... he will win a gammon if he rolls ... "Understanding Godel isn't about following his formal proof. ...
    (rec.games.backgammon)