Re: Am I paranoid or....?
- From: "neilkaz" <neilkaz@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: 29 Jul 2006 10:02:06 -0700
Luck compensation algorithms...etc etc from online servers. This is
scary stuff and extremely hard to prove. However, one would expect (at
least I would) that a little bit of smoothing out of luck would give
weaker players a few more percentage wins and therefor result in them
hanging around to play for a longer period of time. However, this would
be suicide for the server if they were caught and BGM and GE and PG
make up for this by raking higher rated players' wins more. Therefore I
have very serious doubts that these servers are doing anything but
generating random dice. However, they may have some huge sequence of
numbers in use, rather than 100% random rolls.
In 2002 I wrote : " One of the servers, I am virtually certain, is
programmed for a
greater incidence of comeback shots, root numbers, turn-around shots
and turn-around jokers."
I'll stand by that statement today. I played there for nearly a year
and a half around the turn of the century as was constantly amazed at a
few things.
1) It was VERY shocking how often two checkers on the bar entered with
a double.
2) 17-1 shots swinging major chunks of equity seemed far too common.
3) Root numbers..like a disasterous 44 blocked in two places when the
other 35 numbers played well seemed too common.
4) Blots left bearing off seemed to be hit too often.
5) Needed doubles in the last couple rolls of bearing off seemed a bit
too common.
OK... now don't panic..I am not sure if this server even offers money
play and I don't read about many here at rgb playing there.
I didn't quantify anything..but it could be done with detailed software
like Piranha mentions. To restate in more detail, and I noticed these
things for both sides and regardless of skill level. ..ie like the site
wanted more excitement than a typical BG game offers.
(1) the occurance of two checkers entering from the bar with a double
seemed to have been many std dev more than expected. (Software could
quantify)
(2) 17-1 shots and jokers happened several std dev too
commonly.(Software could quantify)
(3) I saw more root numbers..doubling blotting horrors in bear
offs..etc for both sides than seems common. (Hard to quantify since not
so common, and shocking when it happens so may be too commonly
remembered)
(4) I wouldn't say a single bear off blot was hit half the time, but I
think more than expected. (Trivial for software to quantify)
(5) I recall a few too many doubles in the last couple rolls of close
games for both sides.
(Trivial for software to quantify)
Once again (1) seemed particularily blatant to me and also to some
friends I spoke to.
As you might imagine, my attacking/blitzing style didn't do too well
there. I played there long enough to observe an extreme incidence of
two checkers entering with doubles and honestly, I think it was at
least twice(maybe even 3 times) as likely to happen as it should !! I
strongly feel that this was not due to many std dev weird luck. This
also is a great way to smooth out skill advantages since weaker players
don't blitz much and get blitzed a lot !
(2) 17-1 type big swing shots seemed to happen at about a 10-1
frequency. Could this have just been extreme luck for a year and a half
? Perhaps..but not likely. A few friends agreed that these lucky shots
seemed too common.
(3) (4) (5) were all perhaps very bad luck or some extreme sequences
sticking in my mind when compared to other sites and live play.
So..I feel strongly that this site had (or may still have..I wont play
there so I cannot say now) dice that were engineered to provide more
turn arounds and therefore a more exciting game for weaker players and
one where the skill was equalized a bit. (and yes..I felt I rolled too
many doubles to enter two checkers as well, often hitting the slot to
put an end to the blitz)
As far as BGM's dice go. I think they are quite fair. I have been
exceedingly unlucky playing for stakes above $2.50/pt there, but that
most likely can be attributed to bad luck vs WC and near WC players. GG
seems to have very fair dice. I have no reasons to suspect that
anything is wrong with TMG's or GE's or PG's dice. The zone..RIP..had
fair dice IMHO.
Unfortunately, the typical claim that dice are fair since 1000000 rolls
are distributed almost perfectly as expected doesn't guarantee fairness
if there's some biases caused by a "smart" server and especially if the
dice are chosen from a huge matrix of millions of rolls... ie..if the
server makes 62 from the bar (Fogerlund's number) three times as
common as normal, then you'll see fewer 62's when not on the bar..etc
etc.
In closing, I strongly feel, that we can play BG for money on
TMG,GG,PG,BGM,GE (I didn't mention CG since never been there, but
cannot imagine an issue with their dice) and get random dice.
And..yes..I still feel that that other site had server programmed dice
in specific situations to make the game more exciting and swingy. (note
that this site was not FIBS(FIBS dice seemed fair when I played
there),,and please don't ask which site I was referring to, since I
won't say)
... neilkaz ..
.
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