Re: Robertie - 501 Essential BG Problems - Problem #75 (errata)

On 9 Nov 2005 12:53:42 -0800, "Raccoon" <racgammon@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:

>Pete Lederer wrote:
>> On 9 Nov 2005 08:32:06 -0800, "Raccoon" <racgammon@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>> While winners are motivated to continue playing they usually only keep a base
>> amount of money on the server. The money that they withdraw is usually lost for
>> the server's owners.
>
>Why? The server can't "lose" what doesn't belong to them. If the
>winners keep playing (which they do) and keep winning (which they do if
>they're really winners), the house keeps raking as long as the winners
>are in action.

True. They can't lose what doesn't belong to them. But they will try to get a
maximum share.

>You played two, three years on TMG? Did you win? >(If you won 55% of your matches,
>you must have won).

Yes.

>Did you ever make a withdrawal?

Yes, several times.

>Did you keep playing after you withdrew?

Yes.

>Did you lose all your money after you withdrew?

Yes, once.

>Log into TMG -- same names there every day waiting at their $10 and $50
>and $100 tables. Aren't at least some of them winning? Are they
>withdrawing their winnings?

I think so. If they don't withdraw more than they deposit they aren't winners.
If they don't withdraw at all they can't be winners.

>Are they continuing to play?

I am sure.

>> You tell of money being taken away by winners that will immediately replenished
>> by new players or rebuys. Of course, that is not true.
>
>You're misquoting me. I said "The amount available for extraction by
>winners and the house is replenished by (1) rebuys by the existing pool
>of losers and (2) deposits by new customers." This -- not must be, but
>will be -- true, if the server is to continue to be profitable. It's
>not guaranteed. The pool of losers _could_ dry up. They could move to
>another server. Isn't that why GE puts so much effort into attracting
>new players with bonuses, referals, freerolls, etc.?
>
>> If the income of the losers was unlimited and their willingness to bring the money to a backgammon server you were right.
>
>Losers don't need "unlimited" income to keep playing or need to be
>willing to lose "unlimited" amounts. All they they need is a continuing
>desire to spend whatever their entertainment budget allows for the
>pleasure of losing at backgammon.
>
>I think your original depiction of "sharks and fish" playing against
>each other seriously skews the reality of online play in two ways.
>
>(1) The pool of "fish" isn't static. Most "fish" aren't stupid enough
>to keep playing and keep losing to the same "sharks" (but some are!)
>You must have experienced players quitting you, right? Players you beat
>so badly they would never play you again? And so you had to find new
>opponents to work your 60% or 55% edge on. And your old opponent found
>new opponents to lose to, or maybe to beat.
>
>(2) The "fish" in the pool don't all just lose and lose and lose until
>they're broke and then go away. Sure, some go broke. Some lose enough
>to convince themselves they can't win, and quit. But a whole lot of
>"fish" keep playing for whatever enjoyment or thrill or masochistic
>craving they get out of it. I think you are seriously underestimating
>how many such people there are, and how many of them play backgammon.

It doesn't matter if the fish change their personal shark.

>Ever play in Monte Carlo or another big backgammon tournament? How many
>players in the open flight had positive expectation? How many thought
>they did? How many didn't care?

Most players don't have a positive expectation in MC. If you include all
expenses almost nobody will have a positive expectatation. Some care, some
don't.

>> You really compare a small site like TMG who has about 1000 players
>> simultaneously in peek times with Vegas? Not to forget that most of these
>> players don't deposit much if at all. Lol, be more serious, please.
>
>What does the number of players have to do with it? Nothing. The
>comparison has to do with who is playing -- winners and losers -- their
>motivation for playing, their frequency of play, their selection of
>opponents and stake.

There is a big difference between gambling in Las Vegas or at TMG. TMG has to
make their money from a very limited number of players. The pool of backgammon
players is too small. Thus i am not surprised if backgammmon sites try to
extract money with brute force.

>Who plays on Server X every day? Are they winning? Are they losing? Who
>plays once in a while? How do they do? Who plays for a while, drops
>some bucks, then moves on to another server in search of luckier dice?
.

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