MLB - June 3, 2008
- From: KingTSports <kingtsports@xxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Tue, 3 Jun 2008 11:36:45 -0700 (PDT)
June 3rd, 2008
Returning from a short vacation in Jamaica and hoping the time on
the island will help my karma.
While I am not a botanist by any means I was most appreciative of
the local plants during my stay....and thanks to the resort bartender
who aided in pointing my in the right direction. They say the rum is
what the island is known, but after sampling some of the native
foilage I must say that I find the multitude of high quality grasses
as the thing I'll most remember from the trip.
As a rule of the thumb, I generally will weight plays largely
based upon the track record of the starting pitching, but tonight
there are two examples of where I am placing more weight on the team
overall.
The first of these two examples for tonight is the Chicago Cubs.
The Cubs are an ugly 1-3 in the road starts of Jason Marquis, and they
lost his effort at Pittsburgh, 5-4. Cubs did manage to pull out a 7-6
win over the Padres to win their 8th consecutive contest and that is
the key stat I am going with for this play.
I like to play teams on runs, whether good or bad, when the price
for such play falls within a range that makes it mathematically
feasible....and this one does that. Padres are bottom feeders in the
NL and the Cubs are playing the best baseball in all of MLB at the
present time.
Ledezma is a starter that will go no more than 5 regardless of how
well he is hurling and the Padres have managed only 1-2 ERA in his 3
home outings, and his ERA in those starts is well over 7. The Padres
will be into their pen early in this one and that will aid the Cubs
chances in this one.
Chicago Cubs Marquis -118 (5Dimes)
The other example of playing on a team overall rather than
focusing solely on the pitcher for tonight is the Boston Red Sox.
The Red Sox sport the best home winning percentage in MLB and take
the field tonight with a 21-5 mark in front of the admiring patrons.
Not focusing on the starting pitcher tonight, Justin Masterson,
but to his credit he has pitched well in his limited action. Boston is
1-1 the 2 previous starts of Masterson, both of which took place in
Fenway. He has allowed only 5 hits in over 12 innings of work, but
control has been an issue as he has issued 7 free passes to the
opposition. Last start was a 2-1 Boston win where Masterson showed he
could hang in a pitcher's duel as he went 6 and 1/3 innings against
Meche of KC.
Tampa Bay has the AL's best record at 35-22, but they aren't
nearly that proficient on the road as they have managed an 11-12
record. Tampa Bay must now play some road games after a lengthy
homestand that saw them play well and win lots of games.
Devil Rays will start Garza tonight and he is certainly not the
best they have to offer. In fact, he is the #4 unit earner on the
staff and has not been successful on the road. TB has managed to win
only 1 of the 4 road starts made by Garza.
Throw in the fact that the D Ray bullpen ERA is more than 3 runs
higher on the road and that makes the price for the Red Sox tonight a
very attractive one.
Boston Masterson -113 (WSEX)
Finally, I will be backing the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight as
they play a game against the Brewers.
The "Big Unit" has looked more like the dominating pitcher of the
late 90's this year after returning from surgery. He has struck out 19
batters in his last two starts, but both of those were Arizona losses
(4-3 and 3-1). He has allowed only 3 runs in his last 20 innings of
work over 3 starts.
Arizona is only 1-2 in the 3 road starts made by Johnson, but his
ERA in his last two starts is barely over 1, so he certainly given the
D'Backs the chance to take those contests.
This is only the 3rd start for McClung, and he was shelled rather
hard in his lost outing which was at home.
Like the "Big Unit" to take care of business and the Arizona bats
should find McClung's pitching to their liking tonight.
Arizona Johnson -104 (WSEX)
BEST OF LUCK to everyone with their action tonight
T
King T Sports Handicapping Service
.
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