Re: NFL kickoff pick and analysis


Excellent thread!

HC says:

Ben out is overrated. I agree with I think Longshot it was that Batch
can do the same things Ben does. Pecks analysis is also right on with
the exception that he's not weighting Ben's yardage enough (in my
opinion) . Also don't know who said it, but somebody is giving Miami
way too much credit on the points for side. And I'm certain that
Culpepper will play the whole game. The only thing that scares me is
all that late money coming in on Pit.

PIT and the UNDER


BettorStats.com wrote:
Suggested Play for NFL Thursday



Pittsburgh Steelers pk (-110)


This is primarily a contrarian play for a number of reasons:


1. Overreaction to QB injury. This typically happens with big-name
players who are injured. Batch is a more-than-adequate QB.

2. Large amount of money was bet on Miami due to the Mansion promo.
Mansion took (according to them) $5.5 million on Pittsburgh. Much of
that was hedged out at other shops, artificially lowering the line.

3. Miami is overrated by the puclic in general this year, and even more
so in this game due to the "fade the Superbowl winner" angle. However,
that angle is so-well known that it is already built into the line.

4. Fundamentally, Pittsburgh is the better team and they are at home.
Getting them at a "pick" is a strong value play.


blog.bettorstats.com

.

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