Re: Pitt vs INDY

obaivasc@xxxxxxxxx wrote:

the morons at wagerline are on the OVER
and there's an edge supporting the COLTS.

Personally I'm hoping for the "steam morons"
to push the line back UP so I can grab the
"value" on a GOOD TEAM (Pitt) getting more than
a full TD...for the newbies this is called
"going AGAINST the steam" -- since that is
where good line value is often found and I
have been recommending for years...

I'll probably LOSE just because this is how
my luck has been going this year, but logically,
while INDY has the stats indicating EXCELLENCE,
what we must *ALWAYS* focus on (though often
forgotten) is just WHO they played in order to
achieve those wonderful stats.

Two good teams (same category as PITT)
10-3 vs JAX
45-37 @Cinci

ONE medicore team:
40-21 @NE  (when NE was heavily injured)

the rest are significant LOSERS...

Pitt has played THREE good teams:
24-22 @SanDiego
17-23 vs JAX (in overtime)
27-13 @Cinci

One mediocre team (arguably a decent team
as this was BEFORE their spate of injuries)
20-23 vs NE

I dunno...
Having to cover -8.5 vs a GOOD TEAM when Indy
at home only beat JAX 10-3; only beat a below-avg
Cleveland squad 13-7; managed to beat St.Louis by
17 (they were down 17-0 after one Q and then "luckily"
the RAMS QB (Bulger) got hurt and they rallied to
come back.  Rams coach also OUT!); and then only a
14 pt win over arguably the WORST team in the NFL!
That same level performance against a GOOD team
(like Pitt) likely would've resulted in a LOSS!

INDY is favoured for a reason besides HFA
but they have a LOT of hurts on defense.
And -8.5 vs a GOOD team which is 4-1 on the road?
Hmmmmm....I don't think the value is on the favs here.

Pitts +8.5 @WSEX/BOW
1h Pitt +5.5 +100 @WSEX/BOW
Pitt scores first +170 @5d
Neither team scores 3 straight +170 @5d
Pitt/INDY ov 47.5 @CAS
1q Pitt +.5+110 @@5d



Manning looks off his usual game thus far.
Too many "just missed" receivers.
And I believe he's not seeing all the open ones.
Of course, he *may* change in the second half.
But if he continues this way, the COLTS would
be ripe for the picking...

.

Relevant Pages

  • Pitt vs INDY
    ... Two good teams (same category as PITT) ... 10-3 vs JAX ... Having to cover -8.5 vs a GOOD TEAM when Indy ... Pitt scores first +170 @5d ...
    (rec.gambling.sports)
  • Re: Pitt vs INDY
    ... Two good teams (same category as PITT) ... 10-3 vs JAX ... Having to cover -8.5 vs a GOOD TEAM when Indy ... Pitt scores first +170 @5d ...
    (rec.gambling.sports)
  • Re: So who will win the AFC?
    ... >> Colts are too soft ... >> Pitt is well rounded but the blunderhead can fuck things up quick ...
    (alt.sports.football.pro.ne-patriots)
  • Re: Pitt vs INDY
    ... and there's an edge supporting the COLTS. ... to push the line back UP so I can grab the "value" on a GOOD TEAM (Pitt) getting more than a full TD...for the newbies this is called "going AGAINST the steam" -- since that is where good line value is often found and I have been recommending for years... ...
    (rec.gambling.sports)
  • Re: So who will win the AFC?
    ... >> Colts are too soft ... >> Pitt is well rounded but the blunderhead can fuck things up quick ...
    (alt.sports.football.pro.ne-patriots)