Re: Pitt vs INDY
obaivasc@xxxxxxxxx wrote:
the morons at wagerline are on the OVER
and there's an edge supporting the COLTS.
Personally I'm hoping for the "steam morons"
to push the line back UP so I can grab the
"value" on a GOOD TEAM (Pitt) getting more than
a full TD...for the newbies this is called
"going AGAINST the steam" -- since that is
where good line value is often found and I
have been recommending for years...
I'll probably LOSE just because this is how
my luck has been going this year, but logically,
while INDY has the stats indicating EXCELLENCE,
what we must *ALWAYS* focus on (though often
forgotten) is just WHO they played in order to
achieve those wonderful stats.
Two good teams (same category as PITT)
10-3 vs JAX
45-37 @Cinci
ONE medicore team:
40-21 @NE (when NE was heavily injured)
the rest are significant LOSERS...
Pitt has played THREE good teams:
24-22 @SanDiego
17-23 vs JAX (in overtime)
27-13 @Cinci
One mediocre team (arguably a decent team
as this was BEFORE their spate of injuries)
20-23 vs NE
I dunno...
Having to cover -8.5 vs a GOOD TEAM when Indy
at home only beat JAX 10-3; only beat a below-avg
Cleveland squad 13-7; managed to beat St.Louis by
17 (they were down 17-0 after one Q and then "luckily"
the RAMS QB (Bulger) got hurt and they rallied to
come back. Rams coach also OUT!); and then only a
14 pt win over arguably the WORST team in the NFL!
That same level performance against a GOOD team
(like Pitt) likely would've resulted in a LOSS!
INDY is favoured for a reason besides HFA
but they have a LOT of hurts on defense.
And -8.5 vs a GOOD team which is 4-1 on the road?
Hmmmmm....I don't think the value is on the favs here.
Pitts +8.5 @WSEX/BOW
1h Pitt +5.5 +100 @WSEX/BOW
Pitt scores first +170 @5d
Neither team scores 3 straight
....SHould continue +170 @5d
Pitt/INDY ov 47.5 @CAS
1q Pitt +.5+110 @@5d
.
Relevant Pages
- Pitt vs INDY
... Two good teams (same category as PITT) ... 10-3 vs JAX ... Having to cover -8.5 vs a GOOD TEAM when Indy ... Pitt scores first +170 @5d ...
(rec.gambling.sports) - Re: Pitt vs INDY
... Two good teams (same category as PITT) ... 10-3 vs JAX ... Having to cover -8.5 vs a GOOD TEAM when Indy ... But if he continues this way, the COLTS would be ripe for the picking... ...
(rec.gambling.sports) - Re: Early thoughts on NFL?
... The public may be starting to notice, the Pitt O is ... > first play and an aggressive D to win 26-7 (from that matchup Cowher ... Indy at home, QB goes to Manning (but Ben is ... I won't touch this game. ...
(rec.gambling.sports) - Which team would be the toughest road to the SB?
... At Indy or Pitt seems like an easier road. ... Prev by Date: ...
(alt.sports.football.pro.ne-patriots) - Re: Which team would be the toughest road to the SB?
... > I'd have to say if we had to play at Denver. ... Even with a healthy team. ... > At Indy or Pitt seems like an easier road. ... Pitt will crash and burn regardless-Cowher chokes in the big game. ...
(alt.sports.football.pro.ne-patriots) |
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