The Online Shuffle I/is Random?

First some mathematical facts.

You all know that an ace on the flop will effect the probability that the
opponent holds an ace in the hole.

Well, it doesn't; it only effects the probability of the opponent holding
that exact ace. The reason why the poker math is wrong here is that the
books of math do not deal with the fact of in what order those cards came
out.

I deal you a card, then to me, then to you and then to me, like in holdem. I
am holding an ace. Here the poker math calculates that both of your cards
came out from a deck with just three aces. That's not true.

Your first card came out of a fresh deck, and if my first card was not an
ace, your second card came out of a 50 card deck, containing four aces (if
your first card wasn't an ace), and so, at that point, even increasing the
probability that you hold an ace.

All of those factors must be calculated to get the right average answer, and
in fact, if you look your cards as they come, there is no average answer.

The same holds true for the flop, that's dealt after the hole cards. When
(that is the so very right word) the flop contains an ace, it has no effect
to the probability of the hole cards containing an ace.

There is some common situation here on the turn, that when it pairs some
card like the top card, it's played like it would decrease the chance the
opponent has trips; it doesn't, but still one should often play it like that
as the opponent thinks you might think so, and so one can play looser, both
more aggressively and give more action.

Those who know the Monty Hall problem or whatever it is called, know that
the probability of the first door containing a car will remain the same 1/3,
and so we see that the "blank" coming after it does not effect the
probability of what happened before it, but only what happens after it.

Now, one just wonders how all those random number generators have been made.
It's a fact in my opinion that a place like FullTilt has double fluctuations
compared to PokerStars before 2007.

(I played there years and I don't know how it's now - I saw some negative
changes starting from december 2006 and they were there the whole year of
2007 - in 2008 I played there only one session and things during that
session were back at normal, though I was playing PLO during that session.)

PokerStars had half the fluctuations and opponents missed hands more often
than at many other places; it wasn't the FullTilt's somewhat typical "win
every hand or lose every hand."

If the random number generator deals cards out e.g. from an infinite deck
but eliminates any exact card already dealt, it would deal more hits, and it
might have effect in producing (short or longer run) double fluctuations
also.

I don't know practically anything about random number generators, but I do
know that the poker math at some spots is not what it should be, and what I
(and others) experience (in the long run) when playing at different sites.


.

Relevant Pages

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    (rec.gambling.poker)