Re: "Fold Equity" ...definition and example please

Beldin the Sorcerer wrote:
"Dutch" <no@xxxxxxxxx> wrote in message news:_Zm3k.17130$js6.4966@xxxxxxxxxxxx
Beldin the Sorcerer wrote:
"Dutch" <no@xxxxxxxxx> wrote in message news:Wj73k.18049$gc5.11844@xxxxxxxxxxxx
Tad Perry wrote:
"mikeyvee" <chefventura@xxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:817532ff64cb55d4383333441380c6a9@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
let's hear it players
Fold equity is that part of your opponent's pot equity that you will get if
s/he folds.

tvp


Can you use it in a sentence in the context of working out how you'd play a hypothetical hand? In other words show the usefulness of the concept.
His definition seems a little muddled.

Fold equity is the likelihood your opponent will fold, given the range of hands you have him on.

Say you have Nut flush draw on a flop of Q73.

He bets half the pot.

You consider going all in.

You may figure you have a 40% chance of winning if he calls, because he may well have a PP below AA, or Ace, non Q, given his bet.

You may furthjer know that if he has JJ or less, there's a 40% chance he'll fold.

This means you win the current pot 40% of the time, and 60% of the time, you have 40% equity in the big pot.

Stack size and good estimates of the fold equity are key.



OK.. could I summarize that by saying that my fold equity on any given hand is that portion of my chance of winning the pot which I derive from the possibility of my opponent folding?

If so then if I happen to hold the stone cold nuts then the hand has no fold equity for me at all since I will win no matter what.

Well, strictly speaking, no, it still 'has' fold equity, but now you don't want to use it. Or you want to reverse it.... if he'll fold X% of the time to a given bet size, you need to determine where the best bet size is to get him to call most often... you could, I suppose, call that "Call equity"

Putting it in numbers... Flop is 6s 7h 6c. You have the other two 6's. It goes check check.
Turn is the 2h. Opponent bets half the pot... and you know he'd only do this with 22 or 98h.
You also know he's timid enough to lay down 22 to a really big bet. BUT he also won't call anything on the river if he has 98h and misses completely.

You clearly want to raise something. Raising too much gets you your "fold equity", but you don't want that. (if it's 100% certain he folds to an all in, say, you just take the pot down there... but you want whatever more you can milk him for)


If I am bluffing then my chance of winning the pot would be almost completely derived from fold equity.
Yes, but the term is more often used when making a play on the flop or turn.

Using the same hand in reverse, if you had the 98h on the turn, and your opponentt DIDN'T have a 6 (give him, say, any good preflop raising hand), you might consider a pot sized bet on the turn as +EV.... he folds maybe 50% of the time, and you're no worse than a 2-1 dog the rest of the time.

Wheras if you know he always calls, and he always has a better hand, then it's insane to bet, though it may be justified to CALL that sized bet, given the pot odds.

You sound so much more rational and intelligent when discussing poker. It's like you are completely different person than the ranting, grade school insult-chucking fool we see discussing politics. I am 100% sincere when I say this Beldin, if you took this attitude, this tone and applied it to other topics you would gain far more respect for your opinions.



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