Re: skill is overrated



On Jan 15 2008 10:08 PM, brewmaster wrote:

On Jan 15 2008 6:26 PM, johnny_t wrote:

Imagine poker is the following game.

9 people around the table. They all put 15 dollars in, the dealer deals
out two cards to everyone face up. Then deals out all five cards in the
middle and the best hand wins. No rake, no drop, no toking.

In the short-term some will be losers and some will be winners, if you
win more that 1/9 of the pots over the time period you will win. If you
win less then you lose. Over a longer and longer period of time.
There will be occasional big losers, and occasional big winners, but
most people will just break even.

This is luck.

Now imagine the same game with the cards turned over and the betting
rounds happen preflop, postflop, postturn and post river. Now the game
has mistakes. Making less mistakes, and capitalizing on your opponents
mistakes is the skill. This is not easy, and the mistakes are varied
and interesting. Many just make too many mistakes and lose very
quickly. Many only master a few scenarios, and develop styles that can
be abused by others and they lose. A few can play different styles,
simply know more moves and situations, and bend like a reed to their
opponent to take them down. These most skillful players win. At the
expense of most others.

This is skill.

It is not about any given hand. It is not about any given play. It is
about the whole session/tourney/game/life. It is about managing the
luck, it is about managing your money, it is about managing the other
players. And you are not playing machines, but rather people who are
attempting to do the exact same to you. You just need to be better at it.

Poker is interesting precisely because there is luck. That in the short
term the unskilled can beat the skilled. That the unskilled can be
misled because of this.

But that said, lucky is a lot better than good. The good are just luckier.

This is a great post.

Really?

He's saying that poker is all skill but there's some other game (strip poker?)
that's all luck.

I'm not sure that's very insightful. But I guess in the land of the blind and
all that.

Gary Carson
http://www.garycarson.com



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