Re: Nut flush - paired board

On Fri, 21 Dec 2007 10:54:12 -0800, "Wayne Vinson" <wayne.vinson@xxxxxxxxx>
wrote:

Well, most likely is a flush.

Agreed.

2nd most likely is a 3.

I don't see what 3 kickers he's playing except A3 or maybe K3 suited.
Unless he's a complete idiot. Still, I don't see what's raising us on the
river but something like that.

Anything & everything probably. The problem was pretty much posed as him
being an idiot. At 10/20 I would radically re-order my likelihood list to
reduce the 3's and move up the A-good. Especially given how popular "pot
control" has suddenly gotten with TPTK type hands. The boat still seems
like a longshot.

Third most likely
is an A. Fourth most likely is a boat.

This is about what he has, IMO. That's why this hand (after the raise)
is a perfect example of the case where you're probably ahead, but a raise
is useless (unless he's so short after his own raise that he calls with the
stuff we beat as well as the stuff that beats us).

If we had already put in our value bet, I would 100% agree with that and
just call. But the problem is posed as if we screwed up the value bet, so
I think the dynamic is somewhat different here. I'm fairly sure a trip 3
raises us.

My original was a little unclear. When I said "This is about what he has," I
meant your general range. Flushes, 3x hands, Ax hands (sometimes
A-good), and boats (and quads but they don't account for much at all).

If I think he calls with this entire range, I jam, easily. I just don't think
he does. And while you haven't gotten proper value for the hand, it's been
misplayed so badly it can't be salvaged by raising now. You now know
that he has a range like this. You shouldn't have known that without a
pot-sized bet going in first, though.

I only reraise on fairly short stacks, if it doesn't open the betting to
substantial action. Or if the opponent is already pot committed and is
calling with anything he raised me with in the first place. Or if he's
really a chump who will call with anything he raised me with, no matter
what and without regard for the odds, because I'm ahead of that range
taken as a whole.

I don't really want to narrow the range any further, though, so I think
given the mess we've gotten ourselves in here, just calling is best,
subject to the potential stack size/total chump issues.
.

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