Re: Tourney Question
- From: ime@xxxxxxxxx (Randy Hudson)
- Date: Tue, 24 Jul 2007 23:12:11 +0000 (UTC)
In article <1185314750$1026481@xxxxxxxxxxxx>,
The Reamer <bmichel@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
I don't like the move.
I disagree. There's 3600 in the middle; picking it up adds 20-25% to his
tournament EV with typical payouts.
1.If you get called you are probably dominated or a dog.
True. Because the hands that call him are so few.
Let's assume that he'll be called by AK, AQ, AJs, JJ, QQ, KK, and AA.
Then each player has a 47/1225 chance of having a calling hand, less than
4%. The chance that none do is almost 80%. So with 80% probability his
tournament EV is increased by over 20%.
In the other 20% of cases, his tournament EV is decreased, by between 20%
and 70% depending on how big the caller's stack is. Let's say a 50%
decrease in TEV (on average) 20% of the time, and a 20% increase in TEV the
other 80% of the time. That's a net increase in TEV by 6% by moving in.
And the assumptions are chosen to not particularly favor the move. A medium
stack will probably fold AQ rather than risk getting busted, for example,
improving your EV.
2. The small stacks are praying someone like you busts out.
If you fold, they might also be moving with any ace, with an excellent
chance to grow their stack to around the same level you will have after
paying the blinds over the next two hands. Your raise pre-empts that.
3. The small stacks will be gone soon. The object is to get into the money.
The object is to get as much money as you can. This isn't a supersatellite.
There's a chance of taking each prize, and an EV which is the weighted sum
of those probabilities. You need a huge increase in your chance of taking a
small prize to outweigh a small reduction in your chance of taking a top
prize. Moving here increases your chances of taking the top prizes
by more than enough to cover the risk of busting that comes with that move.
4. The big stack could call you with just about anything and put your tournament
in jeopardy.
He's not calling with "just about anything" unless he's an idiot. He
doesn't want to give up his chip lead, he doesn't want to double up a medium
stack and create a serious threat, and he doesn't want to get involved when
he could easily be dominated. You're moving in for 10 big blinds from UTG;
you aren't desperate, you have a hand.
5. I like the move better in LP
There are 4 non-blinds to act behind you. Two of them are tiny stacks,
unlikely to call without monsters and unable to do much harm if they do.
You're effectively in late-middle position.
Blinds are 500/1000 w/ 300 antes.
I'm around third in chips. The two shortest stacks have around 2k.
I'm UTG with around 10k and see AJo.
--
Randy Hudson
.
- References:
- Tourney Question
- From: Brian Cadd
- Tourney Question
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