Re: Pseudo-proof that something aint right with the Stars RNG

"Elisabeth Chorraz" <elisabeth.chorraz@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:D5idndJjlf8VItHbnZ2dnUVZ_tWhnZ2d@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Jacks, how are you getting the 16.85...%. figure?

I've forgotten most of the probability I've ever learned, but it seems to
me
(intuitively) that the probablity of hitting in 50,000 hands is 50000 x
0.0000036937852 ~= .184 ... or 18.4%.

I'm saying that I think you're wrong, but if I'm wrong, which is likely,
I'd
like to know where I went astray.


For what it's worth - I talked to my son the physics major, who quickly
showed my the error of my ways. I was impressed by the kid - he derived the
formula for the back-to-back probability by first considering the simple
case of a coin flipped 3 times. Apparently the formula for this would be
1 - (1 - 1/270725) ^ (49999), where the ^ is exponentiation. That agrees
with the figure that Jacks gives below (except that Jacks, I think you have
an off-by-one error. Apparently you used 50000 instead of 49999, but if you
have 50000 hands you only have 49999 back-to-back comparisons.)

And I learned this - Google has a built-in calculator - if you type that
expression into Google it gives you this answer. The kid says it has a
bunch of physical constants built in to the calculator. He uses it to do
his physics homework.

"A Man Beaten by Jacks" <nobody@xxxxxxxx> wrote in message

If you have a string of 50,000 hands, the probability of not having two
hands in a row that are identical at some point during that series is
83.136229775028%.

Nobody responded to any of my posts on this thread. I don't know if
everybody has me killfiled already, or if I just put everybody to sleep.

Bett


.

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