Re: A modest suggestion.....

On Thu, 31 Aug 06 17:04:20 GMT, JohnnyCoconuts <43084389@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:


<snipped>

It's not that there's no reward - it's just such a long shot when all these
people call.  See ABBBJ's comment above - that's really what I'm getting at.

If 10 people call you and you're a 90% favorite each time - it doesn't matter,
you're more than a 90% underdog overall - you are most likely going home.   (If
I could stop at one trial, of course, sign me up, but of course I can't.)

If ten people call, then no one is 90% to win. In the first couple
of rounds of a tourney, practically everyone limps in. Of course,
this is not a smart thing to do, but it is the "feeling out" time of
the tournament. No one should be surprised when a 23o wins against
much better cards.

In order to survive, what you need is to simply NOT be the one who is all
in very much, regardless of by what amount you are a favorite in any one hand,
thus why I said I'd rather they not call me. 

I agree. All-in preflop is the worst situation to be in and the
worst bet to make. There are times when you have no choice, but when
you do have the choice the best option is to make a significant
pre-flop raise and try and get people off the pot.

Many times, waiting for the flop would have helped much more than
risking an all-in bet. If you have KK and go all-in, you are
virtually helpless against any Ax, if an A is flopped. Turned around,
there are times when people will call with middle pairs against your
all-in AK, for example. They completely miss the flop and turn but
hit their set on the river. If you had not gone all-in right away,
you have the chance to bet them off the pot if you hit an A or K on
the flop and then go all-in. Of course, a lot of players are
pigheaded about their cards and nothing in the world will get them off
their cards--that is why there are so many bad beat stories :-(

So, the question is, how does a professional player finish in the
money so often? Is someone like Phil Ivey simply a very lucky player,
for example? Somehow, they are avoiding these bad beats and I can
only believe that when more money is on the line, people play more
sensible poker thus reducing the chance of a bad beat.

--Warning: my bad beat story of the day follows, you can stop reading
here, if you like :-)

I just got done playing a tournament. I get dealt AKc. Six out of
ten players limp to me in the SB. The blinds are currently 15/30 and
I raise to 240. BB, UTG and UTG+1 fold. UTG+2 calls and the button
calls. The flop comes K5K. I check, UTG+2 checks and the button
checks. After an insignifant turn, I am all-in. The button calls and
turns over K5o. I am out.

How can you prevent a bad beat like that? How does someone even
call with K5o after a raise to 8x the BB? That was not the only big
hand he won with trash cards, either. My only comfort is that I know
he probably won't go far playing the cards he does. Little
consolation to me and two other players he knocked out with trash :-(

MTT's have to be the most difficult games to play and win at.
Normally, I prefer SNG's. It is easier to wait out the bad players
and sit on a stack. In an MTT, where the blinds are going up quickly,
ths is usually an option only at the very beginning of the tournament.
In the later stages, when you find yourself short-stacked, no one
believes that you are holding pocket A's and you can be assured that
you will get more than one caller and get busted out by some donk
hand.

I am just rambling here, so ignore me :-) Sorry about the long post.
I think that I was just trying to sort things out in my own mind about
how to play these things in the future :-)

David



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