Re: Morphy's Tuesday quiz

On Apr 25 2006 5:16 PM, Ron Dworkin wrote:



However, this table in
general was prone to overplaying hands like any Ax, KQ and the like.



Info that I didn't have (that would have been important in the original
description). IMO, even so, raising in this position with this hand at
this stage in the game is a bad play unless you can dump it on the flop,
which obviously the person playing the hand can't. In fact, the fact that
the table is so willing to call with virtually any pair and any pair is
exactly what makes a hand like AJo so bad, especially in early position.
Any board that isn't AAx, JJx, AJx, or KQT is a scare board. Yes,
sometimes you will hit an Axx board and get a weaker ace to give you a
bunch of chips, but more often than not they will hit a two pair hand and
take some of yours, or hit a disguised set, or you'll be betting down the
entire way and they will (incorrectly) be calling with a bad hand that
still beats you (like middle pair, ect).




but people call
continuation bets with lots of things, especially on flops like this. A
second barrel here is not bad.


This would be the first barrel, but we are in agreement that if you played
the hand preflop, you should prob bet 200-300 on the flop.



Options: he is
drawing, has a monster and wants you to hit the flush, or he has a weak
made hand that wants a cheap showdown.




What does he call preflop and on the flop with that is drawing on the
turn? A3/A7? Sure, maybe. Two biggish spades? Perhaps. That's about
it, though. If he's drawing, he either has spades, a seven, or a three.
I can't think of many hands that contain a three or a seven in it that are
calling preflop and "quickly" on the flop, other than 33/77 (which are
beating you at this point anyway), and maybe A3/A7, if the other guy is a
real donkey. I would imagine that even a total amature would be folding
Q3 and hands of that ilk preflop or on the flop. The other two options
(he has a monster, he had a weak made hand, like A6 or something like
that) are beating you both here AND on the river, so theres no reason to
call the river bet.




Well, he flat calls the flop and turn, and now he vastly overbets the
pot. We can discount heavily a weaker made hand like a pair. This
means he likely either missed his draw or has hit a monster and is
repping a missed draw. Really I think it is very likely that he missed
a draw here 30% of the time or greater.




Why can you discount a weaker made hand? IMO, the type of person thats
going to call with horrible hands hoping to hit runner-runner is going to
be the type of person to "bluff" with a weak made hand when the only thing
thats going to call him is a monster. If you give a guy credit for being
a donkey, you have to give him credit for all the donkey things that
people do, which includes this. Again you mention that he may be drawing,
but I don't know what hands he would have that are drawing. If he had
spades, they got there. The only hands that were drawing that may have
called you pre and on the flop are, again, A3/A7. Yes, once in a great
while you will call and he will show T7 or something silly like that and
you'll look like a genius. But that same percentage of the time, he will
show 33 and you will look like a fool. I just can't see any way that you
will be good here 30% of the time. Just because you happen to win the
hand doesn't mean that you played it the best you possibly could, to
extract the maximum value from it.

_______________________________________________________________________ 
* kill-files, watch-lists, favorites, and more.. www.recgroups.com

.

Relevant Pages

  • Re: Omaha tourney question
    ... Drawing without a back hand is always ... and he hit the 7. ... What did I do wrong apart from lose to a muppet? ... The flop comes 9-8-rag, two clubs; the raiser bets and there is ...
    (rec.gambling.poker)
  • Re: Morphys Tuesday quiz
    ... this stage in the game is a bad play unless you can dump it on the flop, ... but more often than not they will hit a two pair hand and ... What does he call preflop and on the flop with that is drawing on the ... The diamond draw is the one I was thinking of. ...
    (rec.gambling.poker)
  • Re: Morphys Tuesday quiz
    ... "he may have hit a 9" I am thinking "how often is he bluffing v having ... why risk your chips with something marginal when you know the chips ... Flop: If for whatever reason you didn't decide to fold, ... Most hands that missed their draw still beat you. ...
    (rec.gambling.poker)
  • Re: Ms. Ts WSOP 1k Qualifier: Lets play a hand.
    ... I agree that whether or not you should make that call depends, a lot, on whether you believe you are up against 'good players'. ... Four to the flush with a pair (strong drawing hand) ... and get married to rag aces on an A high flop. ...
    (rec.gambling.poker)
  • Re: Advice after a discouraging run
    ... > In the course of about 50 hands, trying to play tight, here's a sample ... hit a miracle flop, as some of these hands were. ... you miss to make up for the few times when you hit. ... > Any philosophy from the masters out there? ...
    (rec.gambling.poker)
Loading