Re: Morphy's Tuesday quiz
- From: "Ron Dworkin" <toddbryson@xxxxxxxxx>
- Date: 25 Apr 2006 18:04:35 -0700
David Potts wrote:
What range do you put the pusher on then?
Its not a question of assigning a range and just working out the
percentages. Its a question of how often he has each of types of hands
in his range *given the river action*.
On Apr 25 2006 4:50 PM, Ron Dworkin wrote:
David Potts wrote:
Don't think you'll win 30% of the time, even if you put a huge range on him.
With a range of any suited diamond paint, AKo-AJo, diamond suited connectors
down to 56s, but all suited connectors for 56s and 67s (which would have hit
the
flop with either trips or an OESD), you're only 25%.
?
That doesn't count any pocket pairs but covers nearly all missed draws. Also
doesn't count the possibility of A9s, which would have rivered a pair on
you.
You simply can't make this call.
THe point is that a one pair hand probably checks behind the majority
of the time. Against that all in bet on the river I am not thinking
"he may have hit a 9" I am thinking "how often is he bluffing v having
a monster hand."
Then again, why did you raise preflop with AJo again? If the table is that
"crazy", why risk your chips with something marginal when you know the chips
will be coming your way sooner or later?
THe table wasn't "crazy." There were several players who overvalued
lesser starting hands, that is all. And the chips are only coming your
way if you go get them.
On Apr 25 2006 4:16 PM, Ron Dworkin wrote:
GambleAB wrote:
Here is how I would play the hand the majority of the time. Now, there
is
almost never one correct way to play a hand, especially in a tournament.
Opinions can differ, based on the feel of the table, your percieved
image,
and most importantly the image you wish to project for later levels.
But,
for all intepts and purposes, here is how I feel is the best way to
proceed with the hand:
Pre-flop: FOLD. AJ is a losing hand, especially in tournaments,
especially in early position, especially in early levels. The reason AJ
is such a bad hand is that it has a very high probability of making the
2nd best hand, which makes you throw away a bunch of chips. Also, the
times that it doesn't hit, you are feeled forced to bluff with it, which
we see, which can only result in losing MORE chips.
Folding AJ in EP is never really a bad play. However, this table in
general was prone to overplaying hands like any Ax, KQ and the like.
While folding would have been fine, raising was OK too.
Flop: If for whatever reason you didn't decide to fold, I would bet
about
the same 2/3rds pot or so. If the opponent folds, good for me I bluffed
off 350 in order to win 225. If he calls in any time period, I give up
with the hand and check-fold down unless I hit running jacks or aces.
Like pre-flop, giving up would have been ok, but people call
continuation bets with lots of things, especially on flops like this. A
second barrel here is not bad.
Turn: He called. You didn't improve. Check-fold.
He called but did not raise here or on the flop. Options: he is
drawing, has a monster and wants you to hit the flush, or he has a weak
made hand that wants a cheap showdown.
River: He obviously has a hand. Any draw that he may have been playing
on
the flop has hit.
Really? Not the most obvious one.
Most hands that missed their draw still beat you. A
call here is suicide.
Well, he flat calls the flop and turn, and now he vastly overbets the
pot. We can discount heavily a weaker made hand like a pair. This
means he likely either missed his draw or has hit a monster and is
repping a missed draw. Really I think it is very likely that he missed
a draw here 30% of the time or greater.
Also, there is no "answer". What the one individual person had at
showdown here is irrelevant. The key to this exercize is recognizing
styles of play and understanding risk/reward. Betting 150 preflop utg+1
at the 25/50 level has a very very high risk for a very very low reward.
Calling off 1150 chips on the river in order to win a 2725 pot, when the
only thing you can beat is a stone cold bluff when the opponent called
preflop, called on the flop, called on the turn, and pushed on the river
is a move that has a huge risk for almost zero reward. You need to do
correct 30% of the time of more to make this a "right" call. You won't
be. More than 70% of the time, a random opponent will show you a hand
that beats AJ here.
To me the most likely hand was a draw, and I think he has it 30% of the
time easily the way this played out. Sometimes you are going to be
badly beat here and look foolish, but that is the way it goes.
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