Re: Rampaging

On Apr 19 2006 9:47 PM, Jed Taylor wrote:

On Wed, 19 Apr 2006 17:41:40 -0700, "FellKnight"
<jordandevenport@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

On Apr 19 2006 5:25 PM, Jed Taylor wrote:

If you are against multiple bettors/callers, you are almost always
getting
immediate odds (not even counting pot odds) to draw to the flush, so I
recommend going all in (especially at the lower levels). The only
exceptions are if the board is such that there are not enough obvious
hands to account for the play, and you have a low flush draw, thus you
expect that you are against a higher flush draw and drawing dead. This
is
a rare case, though.

Ok. I figure that if you are willing to push after the flop for 9
outs on either the turn or the river, you have a 34.97% probability of
hitting at least one, or just better than once out of every three
times.

What's the difference between immediate and pot odds?

Immediate odds are the fact that you are 4:1 to hit on the turn, and if
you are getting 4 callers (or 2 callers for an all-in bet), then you have
the odds to draw regardless of the pot size.


So by immediate odds, you mean the odds as if there's no money in the
pot to consider.

Isn't it really 1:4.22 for nine outs on the turn? Which means if you
call 4 other people, you're betting $1 to win $4, so over the long
haul, you'll lose money. I think this argues for calling not being an
option.

All-in after the flop for 9 outs is a 1:1.86 odds play, so you'd need
to be sure to get two callers to have immediate odds.

If you only get one caller, you do have what's in the pot to help you
out, but as we saw with the guy with the T9s and 4TTF who called my
all-in and hit it, he was very borderline, and that was after 3 others
folded.

Perhaps the final piece of the puzzle on this situation is the
accumulation of times everyone folds, which might, perhaps, offset the
losses from going ai without having the proper odds to do so.


It seems people just don't like to call an all-in bet, especially from
a short stack who seems to be just waiting for the chance to finally
cash his big one. I sat down at a table and my first hand was AJo in
the CO. I called a $1 bet from MP. Flop comes down 27T rainbow. MP
bets $1 again. I push all-in. He's got over $20 to my pittance, but
mine's all on the line. I know he's staring at his A-paint, probably
suited, convinced I took his bet with a middle PP and made trip 7s or
Ts. He finally folds, and then leaves the table.

You're a nit :)

Fell
--
Visit http://www.fellknight.com for strategy, blog, reviews and more!
(STILL IN BETA MODE)

--- 
looking for a better newsgroup-reader? - www.recgroups.com


.

Relevant Pages

  • Re: Your feedback please
    ... Flop: 994, another rainbow. ... I check, unraised so far, hope to have it raised, no dice, family pot, ... Five callers. ... River: I'm praying to the poker gods at this point: NO KING, NO KING, ...
    (rec.gambling.poker)
  • Re: Your feedback please
    ... Flop: 994, another rainbow. ... I check, unraised so far, hope to have it raised, no dice, family pot, ... Five callers. ... River: I'm praying to the poker gods at this point: NO KING, NO KING, ...
    (rec.gambling.poker)
  • Your feedback please
    ... Flop: 994, another rainbow. ... I check, unraised so far, hope to have it raised, no dice, family pot, ... Five callers. ... River: I'm praying to the poker gods at this point: NO KING, NO KING, ...
    (rec.gambling.poker)
  • Re: NLHE Pot control, bet sizes
    ... Pot is 13.5 BB. ... I would discount K7 and K3 because the callers are tight. ... Should I bet more after the flop? ... Almost the entire book deals with the topic of SPR or stack to ...
    (rec.gambling.poker)
  • Re: Raise, Call, or Fold with a set. All plausible - opinions needed!
    ... I make a very small pre-flop raise of $35. ... I get six callers. ... I push my remaining stack around 475 into the pot. ... whether I needed to fold to the re-raise or call and not raise. ...
    (rec.gambling.poker)