Re: Running it twice question

garycarson <garycarson@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
They aren't identical trials, just independent trials.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_independence

"In probability theory, to say that two events are independent intuitively
means that knowing whether one of them occurs makes it neither more probable
nor less probable that the other occurs."

If an event is the dealing of two cards from the stub, or more specifically
the identity of two cards so dealt, then per the above the events (trials)
are not independent. From the same article,

"Two events A and B are independent iff P(A ? B) = P(A)P(B).

Here A ? B is the intersection of A and B, that is, it is the event that
both events A and B occur." [In order to avoid special font requirements I
have substituted "?" for the inverted-U set intersection symbol.]

Considering the one-out case as an easy example, then if A is the one out
with some other card, and B is the one out with yet another card, then each
of A and B has a non-zero probability but their intersection does not, so
the criterion of independence is not met.

Alas, I am unfamiliar with the concept of identical trials.


--
For mail, please use my surname where indicated:
steve@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx (Steve Brecher)


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