Re: Some people ARE CONSISTENTLY LUCKIER than others.

On Mar 1 2006 8:22 PM, Gary Carson wrote:

I think this is the kind of discourse, in large part, that I was thinking
about. But still, I think it does avoid, to some extent, the premise that
mathematics predicts that some people will be consistently unluckier than
others.

The premis is that things are random. The mathematical conclusiton based on
that premise is that some will be luckier than others.

Somebody will win the lottery. And somebody will win two lotteries.


If this is assumed, then the issue is not necessarily one of
streaks, per se.

Yes it is.

I'm probably being a bit (or more than a bit) dense
here, but isn't it possible that there is some piece of this that can be
discussed beyond the simple recognition that past events are not
predictive of future (in cards)?

Like what?

Gary Carson
http://www.garycarson.com

I want to thank you, Will, and da pickle for taking the time to try to ram
some of this stuff into my head. It may not sound like it from my
questions, but I do have some small understanding of the concepts. I
guess it's the putting them into practice that I'm having some difficulty
with. In part, it probably has something to do with integrating the
intellectual understanding with the emotional response when things seem to
be coming up more tails than heads.

If you will permit, I'm going to take one last shot at trying to express
something that has been rolling around in my head for some time now. Many
of the concepts that we are discussing here are farily simple, at least on
the surface, but are often considerably misunderstood. (E.g., "If you
play excellent poker, you cannot lose in long run." Since the long run is
infinite, and our lives are not, this statement cannot be true in every
case, an it?)

I keep thinking that someone could, should, write a chapter or article
pulling together all of the pieces and integrating them. It seems to me
that we have articles on probability, varience, "luck", consistent proper
play regardless of the past 28 events, etc., but nowhere have I seen all
of these pieces dealt with as a whole, with specific recognition and
discussion of how they all can result in horribly negative results for a
long time, as well as good. I have in mind here something in the nature
of Stephen Hawking's recent book, "A Briefer History of Time." Sure, it's
a dumbed down version of his earlier book, but it's written in a an
attempt to convey as many of the pieces as possible in a manner that can
(hopefully) be conceptualized and understood by leser mortals.

Maybe it would help if I simply had someone to vent to, get it out of my
system, and blithely move on. Unfortunately, I haven't met anyone around
here that plays poker, so I don't have anyone to just chat with about
these things. And lord knows, rgp can sometimes be less than
accepting or sympathetic to less than perfect clarity, so it's not always
an option. [smile]

Anyway, thanks again for your help. Sorry for the long vent. With any
"luck," it might even be a bit cathartic. Cheers.

--- 
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