Re: How well do you know the odds?
- From: "Ken" <Omaha8_Beach@xxxxxxxxx>
- Date: 12 Jan 2006 21:08:37 -0800
I think you're missing part of the problem. When you select a door,
one of the other doors MUST be empty (it could be 2 if you originally
selected the right door), and by being shown that one of them is empty
EVERY time regardless of whether the door you selected was correct, and
given the option of switching, you are in effect getting the option of
picking both doors (the one you switch to and the proven empty door).
I
After you make your selection, there are two doors left. If you didn't
select the right door, the host will show the one that is empty among
the two, and if you did select the right one, he will randomly select
one of the two.
Look at my extreme example in my post above. With a million doors,
when you select the inital door, whether you selected the correct door
or not, there are at least 999,998 empty doors remaining (the only way
there would be 999,999 empty doors remaining would be if you got very
lucky the first time). If the host always will open 999,998 of the
remaining empty doors and give you the option to switch, the only
reason it would make sense to NOT switch would be if you think that
there were in fact 999,999 empty doors remaining to being with (after
you made your selection), meaning that you got extremely lucky (1 in
1,000,000) when you made your first selection.
In the example given, you can stick with your door and feel more
comfortable that you hit a 1 out of 3 shot, or you can switch and be
effectively getting a 2 out of 3 shot.
Ken
Justin C wrote:
> On 2006-01-12, thenutlow <james_allen429@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> > On Jan 12 2006 10:06 PM, Monty_Burns wrote:
> >
> >> ALWAYS switch! You will win 2 out of 3 times. Now get ready for those
> >> who don't believe me and say it doesn't matter it's 50/50.
> >
> > I think most people are familiar with the Monte Hall dilemma
>
> Yeah, familiar with it in the way I'm familiar with anything that's been
> explained to me a dozen times... but it still doesn't make sense to me.
>
> All that has been demonstrated is that one of the other two doors has
> the prize behind it. I just can't connect that to a 66.6% chance of
> hitting the right one by changing because if you decide to change there
> is no choice, it has to be the other one... Surely, being shown what's
> behind one door says it's 50/50 that it's behind the door you chose in
> the first place.
>
> Bah... odds schmodds. I use the force.
>
>
>
> Justin.
>
> --
> Justin C, by the sea.
.
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- Re: How well do you know the odds?
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- Re: How well do you know the odds?
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- Re: How well do you know the odds?
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- How well do you know the odds?
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