Re: Long Run "GCA"

This is an extremely good post for many reasons, and I'm not just saying
that because I want Russ to stake me.

I don't know about the cheating stuff, but everything else is really
spot-on.





<RussGeorgiev@xxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:1136873249.544248.110970@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> The Long, Long Run
>
>
> The long run is hard to define, but 10 years could be considered close
> to a
> beginning, as far as I am concerned. Simulations can be run, however no
> matter
> what numbers the simulation comes up with, the long run is possible to
> go
> further for some. Playing the lottery would be an example (though a bad
> one) of
> this distribution. Someone has to win and there are the people doing so
> at this
> time. Tournament poker is the same. What is Phil Hellmuth's excuse at
> this
> present time, an unlucky streak? Players run well for years in
> tournaments and
> in live action. The long run may be longer than many would realize. Let
> the
> suckers chirp now, for they will be crying later.
>
>
> The world of poker cites many examples of why people don't win, while
> the main
> reason they win is luck, especially in tournaments. Players on a bad
> streak are
> said to be suffering burn out, playing too much and dozens of other
> symptoms
> while the answer is simply the cards are not coming anymore, as the EV
> catches
> up, and tournaments are the quickest places in poker for this to
> happen. The
> reason is parity in a field where so many are so closely matched. Not
> nearly
> the same as in cash poker.
>
>
> When a tournament player has been successful over a period of time and
> suddenly
> goes under, it is stated he is retiring or quitting for other reasons.
> It is
> bad publicity and an embarrassment for the player to say anything else.
> The
> fact is a time comes when the EV catches up with these players and luck
> just
> runs out. The money runs out also from overspending and false
> realizations of a
> persons abilities. Many people suffer illusions of grandeur without
> challenging
> the test of time, the truest barometer in the game. This happens to
> cash
> players, however they don't need publicity and don't need to make
> excuses. This
> makes it useless for excuses to be made. Then factor if they play for a
> living,
> just moving down a notch on the pole will make the games easier to
> beat.
> Consider the rankings as you would classify race horses. You have your
> handicap
> horses, your allowance horses and your claiming horses and the cheap
> claimers.
> Dropping down a notch or two will certainly aid in a cash players
> winning
> problems. Dropping into smaller buy-in tournaments will have little if
> NO
> EFFECT.
>
>
> Many players running well get used to a life style and live far above
> realistic
> means, never stopping to analyze they are receiving an overly large
> number of
> good cards. This is why players go into cheating, as their EV doesn't
> suffer
> the large deviations that prolonged streaks of bad luck can assert. The
> kind
> that change perceptions on the real game of poker. If you have not
> lived
> through one of these streaks you really don't know what playing for a
> living is
> all about. I play for a living and do know what this is about. Pokers
> media
> consultants make some ridiculous statements and the gullible mass
> accepts the
> totally unrealistic banter they dish out. They just want to believe.
> The one
> believable perception they don't want to believe is the amount of
> organized
> cheating that is forever present in the game. Believing this would
> tarnish
> their image of many players and management in the industry. The amount
> of luck
> involved is also incredible.
>
>
> A certain individual has been giving people a dose of the reality of
> the game
> [I refuse to name myself]. The dose "may" be larger than needed, but
> the
> prescription's EV would not be far from the truth, as the uninformed
> public
> perceives.
>
>
> This is why cheats, rats and cockroaches endure over the never-ending
> run. They
> are immune to time, luck and other forces pitted against them.
> Resilience is
> the word and all of the three aforementioned possess that quality.
>
>
> The best way to lower the luck factor is by playing short handed pot
> limit, or
> short handed anything. Small blinds and large stacks in pot limit are
> as sure a
> way to ensure victory as ever devised. This will enable you to bet on
> the river
> without the possibility of being drawn out. It also takes tremendous
> skill in
> order to play this game as it demands you use all weapons in your
> playing
> arsenal. The number one rule in playing poker in Pot Limit or No Limit
> is the
> ability to get your money called when you want it called. An
> accomplishment
> very few are able to master.
>
>
> Playing split games let you maintain a greater edge and balance also.
> The
> reason is a greater edge may be gained as players are able to play
> certain
> games far worse than others. You can only play so badly in certain
> games, while
> other games give you far more variations to lower your level of play or
> raise
> your level of play.
>
>
> Players may run well for years and not realize it. In the late
> seventies when
> Gardena was at it's peak in cheating, all games of any value were
> cheated. The
> green light was on and anything was allowed. Though about everyone,
> including
> regulars who were not involved with cheating lost substantially, a
> couple or
> few players did survive and make money. Do you think this was the
> result of
> playing well? In those days if you had to draw a card [low-ball and
> high-ball
> draw were the games], you couldn't win the pot on at least 37 1/2% of
> the time
> as the card mechanics were at work. On other hands hold out guys were
> at work.
> Yet some still managed to win. Do you think good play accomplished
> this?
> LUCK,LUCK, LUCK as certain people were just dealt numerous Pat Wheels
> every
> day, along with the Pat 6,s.
>
>
> The cheats couldn't have won the money any faster, yet some people did
> manage
> to escape. This is a hard thing to believe if you could of watched the
> proceedings. A thought anyone getting out alive was impossible. Another
> example
> of how strong luck can be in poker. Many people get so lucky when they
> start
> playing, investing their money and later realizing they were lucky.
> Many then
> act accordingly.
>
>
> The Long Run is to long for me to imagine in many games. This is the
> reason
> most high level professionals cheat. They have faced a long run and
> don't feel
> like going on another.
>
>
> Russ Georgiev
>
>
> www.pokermafia.com
>


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