Long Run "GCA"

The Long, Long Run


The long run is hard to define, but 10 years could be considered close
to a
beginning, as far as I am concerned. Simulations can be run, however no
matter
what numbers the simulation comes up with, the long run is possible to
go
further for some. Playing the lottery would be an example (though a bad
one) of
this distribution. Someone has to win and there are the people doing so
at this
time. Tournament poker is the same. What is Phil Hellmuth's excuse at
this
present time, an unlucky streak? Players run well for years in
tournaments and
in live action. The long run may be longer than many would realize. Let
the
suckers chirp now, for they will be crying later.


The world of poker cites many examples of why people don't win, while
the main
reason they win is luck, especially in tournaments. Players on a bad
streak are
said to be suffering burn out, playing too much and dozens of other
symptoms
while the answer is simply the cards are not coming anymore, as the EV
catches
up, and tournaments are the quickest places in poker for this to
happen. The
reason is parity in a field where so many are so closely matched. Not
nearly
the same as in cash poker.


When a tournament player has been successful over a period of time and
suddenly
goes under, it is stated he is retiring or quitting for other reasons.
It is
bad publicity and an embarrassment for the player to say anything else.
The
fact is a time comes when the EV catches up with these players and luck
just
runs out. The money runs out also from overspending and false
realizations of a
persons abilities. Many people suffer illusions of grandeur without
challenging
the test of time, the truest barometer in the game. This happens to
cash
players, however they don't need publicity and don't need to make
excuses. This
makes it useless for excuses to be made. Then factor if they play for a
living,
just moving down a notch on the pole will make the games easier to
beat.
Consider the rankings as you would classify race horses. You have your
handicap
horses, your allowance horses and your claiming horses and the cheap
claimers.
Dropping down a notch or two will certainly aid in a cash players
winning
problems. Dropping into smaller buy-in tournaments will have little if
NO
EFFECT.


Many players running well get used to a life style and live far above
realistic
means, never stopping to analyze they are receiving an overly large
number of
good cards. This is why players go into cheating, as their EV doesn't
suffer
the large deviations that prolonged streaks of bad luck can assert. The
kind
that change perceptions on the real game of poker. If you have not
lived
through one of these streaks you really don't know what playing for a
living is
all about. I play for a living and do know what this is about. Pokers
media
consultants make some ridiculous statements and the gullible mass
accepts the
totally unrealistic banter they dish out. They just want to believe.
The one
believable perception they don't want to believe is the amount of
organized
cheating that is forever present in the game. Believing this would
tarnish
their image of many players and management in the industry. The amount
of luck
involved is also incredible.


A certain individual has been giving people a dose of the reality of
the game
[I refuse to name myself]. The dose "may" be larger than needed, but
the
prescription's EV would not be far from the truth, as the uninformed
public
perceives.


This is why cheats, rats and cockroaches endure over the never-ending
run. They
are immune to time, luck and other forces pitted against them.
Resilience is
the word and all of the three aforementioned possess that quality.


The best way to lower the luck factor is by playing short handed pot
limit, or
short handed anything. Small blinds and large stacks in pot limit are
as sure a
way to ensure victory as ever devised. This will enable you to bet on
the river
without the possibility of being drawn out. It also takes tremendous
skill in
order to play this game as it demands you use all weapons in your
playing
arsenal. The number one rule in playing poker in Pot Limit or No Limit
is the
ability to get your money called when you want it called. An
accomplishment
very few are able to master.


Playing split games let you maintain a greater edge and balance also.
The
reason is a greater edge may be gained as players are able to play
certain
games far worse than others. You can only play so badly in certain
games, while
other games give you far more variations to lower your level of play or
raise
your level of play.


Players may run well for years and not realize it. In the late
seventies when
Gardena was at it's peak in cheating, all games of any value were
cheated. The
green light was on and anything was allowed. Though about everyone,
including
regulars who were not involved with cheating lost substantially, a
couple or
few players did survive and make money. Do you think this was the
result of
playing well? In those days if you had to draw a card [low-ball and
high-ball
draw were the games], you couldn't win the pot on at least 37 1/2% of
the time
as the card mechanics were at work. On other hands hold out guys were
at work.
Yet some still managed to win. Do you think good play accomplished
this?
LUCK,LUCK, LUCK as certain people were just dealt numerous Pat Wheels
every
day, along with the Pat 6,s.


The cheats couldn't have won the money any faster, yet some people did
manage
to escape. This is a hard thing to believe if you could of watched the
proceedings. A thought anyone getting out alive was impossible. Another
example
of how strong luck can be in poker. Many people get so lucky when they
start
playing, investing their money and later realizing they were lucky.
Many then
act accordingly.


The Long Run is to long for me to imagine in many games. This is the
reason
most high level professionals cheat. They have faced a long run and
don't feel
like going on another.


Russ Georgiev


www.pokermafia.com

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