Re: Should You Ever Call a Blind "All In" Bet?


ChrisBrown wrote:
> On Oct 5 2005 9:38 AM, lawhonac wrote:
>
> > I looked in a book on starting hand probabilities. The odds for a 4-2
> > suited starting hand winning the pot were one-half of one percent!
>
> Let me get this straight, you're saying that 42 suited will win .5% of the
> time? There's a book that says this?

Yes, Dennis Purdy's "The Illustrated Guide to Texas Hold 'Em" has a
"Relative Win-Rate Chart" on pages 24-25 which ranks all 169 starting
hands. According to Mr. Purdy, "The following chart shows the win rate
of each hand when randomly played against any other hand." Purdy is
very explicit in explaining that these relative win rates do not apply
to "a normal game" where there is "almost always more than one player
in a hand." (This last statement is a little confusing to me as I'm
not sure exactly what he's saying ...) He also states that his win
rate chart was calculated from a computer simulation of one million
dealt hands, so we can take these "computer figures" with a grain of
salt ...

Anyway, the 4-2 suited hand comes in with a relative ranking of 125
(out of 169) with a win rate of 0.5 percent. King-Queen unsuited is
ranked 23rd with a win rate of 39.2 percent - according to Dennis
Purdy's chart.

I wonder if Mr. Purdy used the simulation capabilities in Wilson
Software's "Turbo Texas Hold 'Em" to come up with these figures?

>
> > (The odds heads-up for KQ unsuited were a little better - 39.2
> > percent.)
>
> Let me get this straight...you're saying that KQ heads up against a hand
> that will win only 0.5% of the time will only win 39.2% of the time? So
> you're saying that these 2 hands will split the pot 60.3% of the time?
>

I'm not saying anything. I'm just quoting the figures given in Purdy's
book.

> > I would think that a player who does this kind of thing
> > repeatedly will be busted out, oh, about 99 percent of the time!?! Am
> > I right or wrong on this?
>
> very wrong. For the record, I would call with any hand that figured to
> have 60% or greater equity against a random hand.
>

I don't know ... Maybe I'm more of a gambler than you guys, but it
seems to me that getting an early chip lead - especially a
"substantial" early chip lead - is so valuable that it's almost worth
taking the risk on ANY two cards - if you "know" that your opponent
hasn't looked at his hole cards. (If I've got an Ace, any pair, or any
paint card, I would be inclined to call a blind all-in bet. If I lose,
get outdrawn, or whatever - then big deal ... there's another
tournament tommorrow.) Irrespective of what happenned the other night,
(i.e. this guy hitting a pair of 2's on the board for trips), if I have
KQ offsuit I will call a "blind" all-in bet everytime; but that's just
me ...

In this case, we knew this guy hadn't looked at his hole cards. He was
very loud, boisterous, and calling attention to himself throughout this
spectacle. He seemed to relish all the attention to his over-the-top
behaviour and antics. Also, I have to believe that this guy hadn't
looked at his hole cards. I mean, who do you know that would go
"all-in" after a quick surreptitious peek at 4-2 suited? The guy
seemed to be totally off his rocker.

Alan C. Lawhon
Huntsville, Alabama

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