Re: Fold A-Qs here?

On Sep 12 2005 11:14 AM, Michael Sullivan wrote:

> Howard Beale <howardbeal1@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>
> > At 8-16 today, played with a full kill where if you win 2 pots in a row
> > the second of which is at least 10SB net of the drop you must post the
> > kill of $16, I had the leg up and A-Qs to the right of the CO. This game
> > is usually very, very loose and mostly passive but players will often call
> > your raise with weak holdings. In a very unusual development it was
> > folded around to me and I auto-raised. As soon as the chips left my hand
> > I wondered if I should just have tossed the hand. The raise was likely to
> > fold the hands behind me, which it did, and it so happened that it also
> > folded the blinds. But what would have happened if just one of the blinds
> > defended? The house takes $1 pre-deal jackpot drop. $2 house drop if
> > there's a flop and another $1 jackpot and $1 house when the pot gets to
> > $30. If I get pushed an $80 pot I've made $40 and have to put $16 on the
> > kill button. If I lose I have to, well, loose. Is a pre-flop fold here
> > more sensible?
>
> Just as posting the BB isn't really a cost, neither is posting the kill.
> Posting the $16 kill in the cutoff doesn't cost you $16. I'd be shocked
> if your EV from the kill was less than $8 in a really active loose game.
>
> I don't think you should be particularly inclined to fold an auto-raise
> situation because of the leg up. Consider the possibilities. You have
> 4 hands behind you and a very good hand yourself. In this game, good
> shot that you get one or two callers where you are the best hand by a
> bit. If you have 50% equity with 2 callers and an abandoned SB, you're
> already +10 preflop so you've covered the cost of the drops and kill
> before you even get to the flop betting (where presumably you will earn
> more money than your opponents). If you get the folds, you're +12 and
> miss a bunch of drops/kill.
>
> What's the worst hand you'd raise in this position? That hand, you
> probably should fold when a leg-up, and maybe one better. But AQ from
> the cutoff in a loose passive game seems like a big enough EV situation
> to cover a lot of bad juice.
>
>
> Michael


Thanks for the help. I think my initial reaction was faulty. I only
considered what would happen in the narrow, though often occuring case, of
being heads up with the BB and winning a pot small enough to eat up 40%
of profit if the pot got to $80. All things considered I'd have to agree
with you.

What a relief! Not raise w/ A-Qs in that spot? Fold it, of all things?
I must be on crack!


HB

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